Northrim BanCorp, Inc. (NRIM)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.45+1.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRIM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
NRIM — government funding
Dated 2026-07-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 22, 2026, Northrim BanCorp, Inc., an Alaska corporation (“Northrim”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) by and among Northrim, PBCO Financial Corporation, an Oregon corporation (“PBCO”), and Whitewater Sub, Inc., an Alaska corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Northrim (“Merger Sub”), pursuant to which, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein (i) PBCO will merge with and into…
Why it matters: Alaska's unemployment rate affects Northrim's loan demand. It also impacts the economy in its main market.
Worry ifAlaska's unemployment rate will go above 5% in the next reports.
Less concerning ifAlaska's unemployment rate will drop below 4.5% in the next reports.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect Northrim's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of about 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of about 15%.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows Northrim's market position. It shows the ability to make money.
Supportive ifTotal portfolio loans grow by more than 1% quarter over quarter in Q3.
Worry ifTotal portfolio loans decline or grow less than 1% quarter over quarter in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings growth shows good management and strong operations. This boosts confidence for investors.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $15 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $15 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend is important for investor trust. It shows good use of capital.
Watch forNorthrim announces a dividend increase above $0.16 per share.
Also watch forNorthrim cuts the dividend below $0.16 per share.
Why it matters: Net interest income helps the company make money. Stability shows they manage well.
Supportive ifNet interest income remains above $37 million for the next two quarters.
Worry ifNet interest income falls below $34 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps growth and efficiency. This is crucial for the merger.
Supportive ifQ3 cash from operations exceeds $40 million.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operations falls below $30 million.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. This may impact Northrim's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The merger will expand Northrim's footprint and enhance its lending capacity. This is a key step in its growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe merger closes as planned in Q4 2026 or early Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed. It might not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income is key for making money. It shows the bank is strong.
Supportive ifNet interest income for Q3 2026 exceeds $37.1 million.
Worry ifNet interest income for Q3 2026 falls below $34.7 million.
Why it matters: The dividend is $0.16. This shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifDividends per share remain at $0.16 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividends per share decrease below $0.16 in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,493 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.