Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.84-6.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NRIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income improves from -$92.5M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss less negative than -$92.5 million. | Under Pressure | Operating loss worsens beyond -$100 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $559.451M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$92.5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 13, 2026559,451,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical-stage biotech with a recovery and development-execution thesis, rather than an established earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis has improved, but remains in watch status after recent momentum gains and two reported earnings misses.
NRIX is described as cheap versus peers, while the model’s confidence in that valuation view is low. The evidence labels the current expectations gap as unjustified and reports no fragility warning, but does not specify what expectations the market is pricing in.
Near-term performance has strengthened relative to the industry, and management has executed the Roche collaboration, including a substantial upfront payment and shared development costs. Clinical progress is mixed: pivotal CLL trials are advancing, while expansion into immunology and neurology remains in development. Near-term earnings risk is elevated after recent misses, and the company remains loss-making.
The multi-year thesis depends on advancing bexobrutideg trials and delivering on the Roche collaboration. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the near-term setup, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the case rests on clinical and partnership execution sustaining the recent improvement, against a backdrop of ongoing losses and elevated near-term earnings risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue at or above $84M in fiscal 2025 | A primary condition in Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $84 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $60 million in fiscal 2025 | Revenue: $673.064M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $84 million. Target period ends 2025-11-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 13, 2026673,064,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful strategic partnership with Roche | A supporting condition in Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain active collaboration with Roche through 2026. | Intact | Partnership with Roche ends or stalls before 2027 | Active partnership confirmed (June 2026 agreement, Sept 2026 milestone) Nurix signed a definitive collaboration agreement with Roche in June 2026 and received a milestone payment in September 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.21 → $-2.13 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.21 | $92,862,400 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.21 | $92,862,400 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.21 | $92,862,400 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.15 | $96,397,160 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.15 | $96,397,160 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.44 | $120,761,460 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.44 | $120,761,460 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.44 | $120,761,460 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.44 | $120,761,460 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.44 | $120,761,460 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.00 | $100,231,346 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.99 | $104,615,923 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.01 | $109,567,061 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.97 | $114,533,758 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.03 | $104,686,604 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.05 | $101,901,988 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.10 | $102,657,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.10 | $102,657,885 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.10 | $102,657,885 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.13 | $99,610,893 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
4 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.