NETSCOUT Systems, Inc. (NTCT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.22-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTCT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NTCT — legal / regulatory event — Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant
Dated 2026-06-03
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On May 28, 2026, the audit committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the board of directors (the “Board”) of NetScout Systems, Inc. (the “Company”), (i) dismissed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (“PwC”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, and (ii) appointed KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) to serve as the Company’s new independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027. The report of PwC on the consolidated…
Why it matters: Changing auditors can make investors trust less. It can also change financial reports.
Watch forGood feedback on KPMG's audit quality and financial reports.
Also watch forNegative feedback or issues reported with KPMG's audit.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may mean rising costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 12.8% in Q1 FY27.
Less concerning ifOperating margin remains at or above 12.8% in Q1 FY27.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean operational problems. It could show cost control issues.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin stays at or above 6.9%.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating margin falls below 6.9%.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that growth plans are working well.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 revenue growth exceeds 5% compared to Q1 FY26.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 revenue growth is less than or equal to 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,699 loss on $10,000 · 17.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if NETSCOUT can maintain growth momentum after a weak Q4 FY2026.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for Q1 FY2027 exceeds $203 million.
Worry ifRevenue guidance for Q1 FY2027 is below $203 million.
Why it matters: Changing auditors can change how finances are reported. It can also shake investor trust.
Watch forQ1 FY27 results show better financial numbers than the last few quarters.
Also watch forQ1 FY27 results show a decline in financial metrics or raise concerns.
Why it matters: If revenue drops below this level, it shows trouble meeting growth goals. This could mean bigger problems.
Worry ifQ4 FY26 revenue reported at less than $200 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 FY26 revenue remains above $200 million.
Why it matters: This would show a slowdown in NETSCOUT's growth. This is important for investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 4.7% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 4.7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: EPS growth is a key management priority. A strong EPS signal indicates progress.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS for Q1 FY2027 exceeds $0.75.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS for Q1 FY2027 is below $0.75.
Why it matters: Falling below this level could show weaker profits. This may affect how investors feel.
Worry ifGAAP net income per share reported below $1.55.
Less concerning ifGAAP net income per share exceeds $1.55.
Why it matters: A good integration could increase revenue and profit. This supports the acquisition plan.
Supportive ifDDoS protection revenue increases by at least $20 million in the next fiscal year.
Worry ifDDoS protection revenue does not grow or drops. This shows problems with integration.
Why it matters: The switch from PwC to KPMG could impact how investors view the company's financial integrity.
Worry ifNo bad reactions from investors or stock price drops after the auditor change.
Less concerning ifThere was a big negative market reaction or stock price drop after the auditor change.
Why it matters: This acquisition is expected to add $20 million in annual revenue, which could boost overall growth.
Supportive ifRevenue rose due to the DigiCert acquisition, which brought in over $20 million.
Worry ifThe acquisition brought in less than $20 million in revenue.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up, it shows faith in future profits and growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises FY27 non-GAAP EPS guidance to above $2.80.
Worry ifEPS guidance remains at or below $2.65.
Why it matters: Changing auditors may affect how investors feel. It could also change financial reports.
Worry ifKPMG's audit report shows no significant issues in the first quarter.
Less concerning ifKPMG's audit report shows worries about money practices.
Why it matters: Good integration can increase revenue and improve products. It shows NETSCOUT can grow.
Supportive ifDigiCert's DDoS business brings in at least $20 million each year.
Worry ifIntegration does not meet revenue goals or there are delays.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if EPS growth is improving or still lagging.
Watch forEPS growth reported above 32% year over year.
Also watch forEPS growth reported below 32% year over year.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future demand. This can help revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe product backlog is over $33 million.
Worry ifIf the product backlog drops or stays below $33 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for management. A drop below median growth signals trouble.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below the sector median growth rate.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the sector median growth rate.
Why it matters: Sustaining strong revenue growth signals NETSCOUT's ability to execute its growth strategy. It shows demand for its services.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth year over year exceeds 10%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth year over year falls below 10%.
Why it matters: Changes in auditors can affect how reliable financial statements are. This impacts investor trust.
Worry ifNo major problems come from the new auditor. This keeps financial reporting strong.
Less concerning ifThere are big problems or delays in financial reporting. This is due to the new auditor.