Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Neonc Technologies Holdings Inc (NTHI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.20+0.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NTHI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce cash operating expenses to $10.1M annually | NeOnc aims to reduce cash operating expenses to about $10.1 million annually. | Under Pressure | cash operating expenses exceed $10.1 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, the Company reported a net loss of approximately $62 million, of which roughly 73% was attributable to non-cash stock-based compensation and one-time listing-related advisory fees, resulting in normalized ongoing cash operating expenses of approximately $10.1 million for the year.” “Approximately 31% of the Q1 2026 net loss reflects $2.7 million of non-cash stock-based compensation, resulting in normalized cash operating expenses of approximately $6.1 million for the quarter (~$24.4 million annualized).” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, loss-making biotech company, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: clinical milestones are progressing, but management volatility, weak recent performance, and high risk leave the business case fragile.
The evidence gives no valuation measure or clear account of what market expectations assume, so whether NTHI is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Its priced-in fragility tier is low because no fragility gates fired, but that does not remove the underlying business risks.
Over the multi-year view, NEO100 and NEO212 development is advancing, with management meeting stated clinical milestones and engaging the FDA on next steps. Expense control has mixed evidence, while recent financial performance is weak and the near-term risk of another earnings miss is elevated. A CEO transition and recent debt issuance add uncertainty around execution and capital allocation.
The thesis depends on NEO100’s clinical results and regulatory path, and on progress toward a pivotal Phase 2 study for NEO212. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on expectations and cyclical healthcare names; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NTHI’s case rests on turning clinical progress into credible regulatory and development milestones while managing cash and execution risks. The evidence is mixed, and the near-term earnings risk remains elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS loss narrows toward consensus estimates | Analysts have slightly improved EPS estimates from -$1.00 to -$0.85 for FY26. | Broken | EPS falls below -$0.85 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful authorization and utilization of Series A Preferred Stock | The company has secured capital through Series A Preferred Stock to fund its cancer therapy pipeline. | Under Pressure | failure to deploy capital from Series A Preferred Stock by mid-2026 | Series A Preferred Stock redeemed (0% outstanding) vs target: fully authorized and deployed by mid-2026 Sept 2026 filings confirm redemption of all outstanding Series A Preferred Stock using proceeds from a $15M registered direct offering. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.62 → $-1.11 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.75 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.75 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.75 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.75 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.75 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.62 | $39,990 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.03 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.05 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.11 | $39,990 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.