Northern Technologies International Corp (NTIC)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.99-0.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
NTIC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-09
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 9, 2026, Northern Technologies International Corporation (“NTIC”) announced its consolidated financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended May 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and the information set forth therein is incorporated herein by reference and constitutes a part of this report. The information contained in
Why it matters: A drop in sales would show ongoing problems in the business and industry.
Worry ifConsolidated net sales fall below $22 million in Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal net sales are over $24 million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Management expects sales to grow in fiscal 2026. This would show progress after recent declines.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth turns positive year over year after a decline to $22.0M in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue keeps falling compared to last year. This shows ongoing sales problems.
Why it matters: The company suspended its dividend to focus on debt. Progress would signal financial health.
Supportive ifManagement announces a big cut in total debt.
Worry ifTotal debt stays the same or goes up. This suggests poor debt management.
Why it matters: More declines would show problems in making money. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $383,000 in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income goes up if it is over $383,000 in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A continued drop in revenue shows that sales growth is not improving. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines further from $22.0M reported in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue grows or stabilizes above $22.0M.
Why it matters: Cutting debt is important. It helps with financial stability and future growth.
Supportive ifDebt decreases by more than 5% by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifDebt increases or remains unchanged by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A return to net income shows better profits. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifNTIC reports positive net income for Q4 after a net loss in Q3.
Worry ifNTIC reports a net loss again in Q4.
Why it matters: Management is working to reduce debt. This is important for NTIC's financial health. Progress could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear plan for debt reduction. This plan has specific goals and a timeline.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays about the debt reduction plan.
Why it matters: Earnings above expectations would show a turnaround in profits and sales growth.
Supportive ifQ4 earnings per share exceed $0.01.
Worry ifQ4 earnings per share fall below $(0.01).
Why it matters: Better profits mean the company is doing a good job with its growth plan.
Supportive ifGross profit increases from $7.9M reported in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross profit declines further from $7.9M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The materials sector is going down. Any signs of recovery could help NTIC's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Worry ifSector revenue keeps going down. This shows there are still challenges ahead.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean pricing and buying efforts are working. This can lead to more profit.
Supportive ifQ4 gross margin improves year over year, moving above 35%.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin declines further or stays below 33%.
Why it matters: Sales growth in this segment is crucial for overall revenue recovery. It shows demand for high-margin products.
Supportive ifZERUST oil and gas sales grow year over year by more than 70%.
Worry ifZERUST oil and gas sales decline or grow less than 50%.
Why it matters: Closing the sale will boost cash flow and lower debt. This helps with financial flexibility.
Supportive ifThe Beachwood facility sale closes and brings in over $1 million.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by fiscal 2027 or generates less than $1 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if management's plans are helping profit and sales growth.
Watch forQ4 earnings show net income or a significant reduction in net loss.
Also watch forQ4 earnings report shows a larger net loss than in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $282 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,024 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.