Northern Technologies International Corp (NTIC)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.72+3.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
NTIC — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-08
CEO — Gautam Ramdas: The CEO transition is described as part of management succession planning with the outgoing CEO remaining as Chairman, indicating an orderly internal promotion rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Raw material costs and Natur-Tec pricing pressure cut Q3 gross margin to 33.6%. A rebound would show pricing and buying changes are helping.
Supportive ifIn the next earnings report, gross margin rises above 33.6% and adjusted net income is positive.
Worry ifGross margin stays at or below 33.6%, or adjusted net income remains negative.
Why it matters: Ramdas took over as CEO in September. His first reported results can show whether sales growth and margin repair remain on track.
Watch forOn November 17, NTIC reports year-over-year sales growth and gross margin above Q3's 33.6%.
Also watch forOn November 17, sales fall year over year or gross margin is at or below 33.6%.
Why it matters: Oil and gas sales grew 72.3% in Q3. Management named this higher-margin business as a key path to more profitable growth.
Supportive ifA reported quarter shows ZERUST oil and gas sales growth above 50% year over year.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows growth at or below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: NTIC paused its cash dividend to focus on debt reduction. The latest reported loan balance was $14.78 million, up from $12.19 million at fiscal 2025 year-end.
Watch forA later report shows the line of credit and term loan balance below $14.78 million.
Also watch forA later report shows the balance at or above $14.78 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,418 loss on $10,000 · 24.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sale could bring more than $1 million in cash. A delay or lower price would weaken this stated source of financial flexibility.
Watch forNTIC reports a completed sale in fiscal 2027 for more than $1 million.
Also watch forNTIC reports that the sale fell through, was delayed past fiscal 2027, or brought less than $1 million.