Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.10-9.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NTLA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance Lonvo-z for hereditary angioedema treatment | Intellia is advancing Lonvo-z for hereditary angioedema treatment. | Recovered | Progress stalls or trial results turn negative | BLA accepted with PDUFA target Mar 10, 2027 FDA accepted Lonvo-z BLA on Sept 8, 2026, granting Priority Review with a PDUFA date of March 10, 2027. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the six-month efficacy evaluation period (weeks 5 to 28), a one-time infusion of lonvo-z reduced attacks by 87% versus placebo, with a mean monthly attack rate of 0.26 in the lonvo-z arm compared with 2.10 in the placebo arm (p<0.0001).” “If approved, Intellia plans to launch lonvo-z commercially in the first half of 2027.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical-stage biotechnology business, not a steady earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: lonvo-z is progressing, while nex-z remains in development and company execution has been volatile.
The evidence characterizes NTLA as expensive versus peers, with a durable premium, though model confidence is low. The priced-in signal is tagged as justified and no fragility gates fired, but the expectations gap is negative, so valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution.
Near term, financial performance is neutral and below its industry cohort, while the miss-risk assessment is quiet despite elevated industry risk. Over the multi-year view, lonvo-z’s positive Phase 3 results and regulatory progress support a planned U.S. launch in the first half of 2027; cash resources are expected to fund operations at least into 2028. Nex-z enrollment is advancing, but remains a mixed execution point.
The thesis depends on FDA acceptance of the rolling lonvo-z submission, the planned launch timeline, and continued access to cash for development and commercialization. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker employment data could add pressure to healthcare names.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NTLA offers meaningful clinical progress but remains a loss-making, elevated-risk company with a premium valuation and execution-sensitive thesis. The key evidence to watch is regulatory progress for lonvo-z, nex-z trial enrollment, cash runway, and management guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Extend cash runway into 2028 | The company aims to extend cash to 2028. | Improving | Cash runway falls short of 2028 | Cash runway extended into 2028 via $400M facility NTLA secured a $400M credit agreement with OrbiMed in Sept 2026, extending cash runway into 2028. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $628.4 million as of June 30, 2026, compared to $605.1 million as of December 31, 2025.” “The company’s existing cash resources are expected to fund its operations at least into 2028 and well beyond lonvo-z’s anticipated U.S. commercial launch for HAE in the first half of 2027.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue above $67 million in 2026 | Revenue is expected above $67 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $67 million in FY26 | Revenue: $7.659M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $67.67 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20267,659,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.82 → $-2.63 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.82 | $271,882,869 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.76 | $268,415,400 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.76 | $268,415,400 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.76 | $268,415,400 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.82 | $271,882,869 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.76 | $268,415,400 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.76 | $268,415,400 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.76 | $268,415,400 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.82 | $271,882,869 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.73 | $273,622,190 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.82 | $271,882,869 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.82 | $271,882,869 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.73 | $273,622,190 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.82 | $271,882,869 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.73 | $339,509,940 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.73 | $339,509,940 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.73 | $339,509,940 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.56 | $125,471,390 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.79 | $277,631,799 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.67 | $120,324,722 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.67 | $120,324,085 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.67 | $120,324,085 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.67 | $120,324,085 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.66 | $120,780,335 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.66 | $121,156,641 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.66 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.66 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.66 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.66 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.66 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.63 | $121,154,414 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.63 | $121,154,416 | 13 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.