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NEXTTRIP INC (NTRP)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$2.05-1.44%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NTRP is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 341% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The outlook hinges on sector trends and economic growth. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Market cap
- $30.25M
- Employees
- 23
- IPO date
- 2008-05-12
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$0.29consensus
Range $0.29 – $0.29
vs price: +599% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$1.27consensus
Range $1.27 – $1.27
vs price: +61% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $2.05, NTRP's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (7.0× the 1× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.29 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
6.2x
peer 0.9x · own history —
Premium
7.0x peer
Growth the price needs
341%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$0.29
range $0.29 – $0.29
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 341% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
11th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.29x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile23 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -118.2% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.11 → $-0.24 (-118.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
3 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
What management is focused on
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$267.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$784.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,666.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NTRP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BKNG, RCL, and ABNB keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting NTRP and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NTRP and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BKNG, RCL, and ABNB start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping NTRP and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NTRP and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would delay Fed rate cuts, which is a drag on NTRP and other Consumer Discretionary names.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets The purchase of the Yada Shares closed on June 10, 2026. The information included in
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.