Reading NVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVT free→Reading NVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVT free→NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Compared with sector peers, NVT trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $165.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $166 NVT trades at 44× p/e — 1.4× the 32× p/e peer median, and above its own 22× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $120 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $135–$218. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.16 (+0.2% / 30d). 12 raised, 0 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 33.1% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$186.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$350.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,693.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows how much money the company expects to make. An increase means strong performance. This can make investors feel good about the stock.
Confirms:Q2 2026 EPS guidance on a GAAP basis above $0.96.
Disproves:Q2 2026 EPS guidance on a GAAP basis below $0.93.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NVT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 1, 2026 , nVent Electric plc (the "Company") issued a press release announcing earnings results for the first quarter of 2026 and a conference call in connection therewith. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$135.00 – $218.00 (median $188.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NVT nVent Electric plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 4.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving higher revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Continue to grow dividends as part of capital allocation strategy.
Why it matters: The sales growth guidance will show if the momentum from Q1 continues. Strong guidance can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 reported sales growth guidance above 28%.
Disproves:Q2 2026 reported sales growth guidance below 23%.
Why it matters: 50% growth in operating income shows good cost control and efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income growth reported at or above 50% year over year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is below 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A dividend growth of over 5% shows that the company values its shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share increased by more than 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Dividend per share increased by less than 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better sector performance could mean a good environment for nVent's growth.
Confirms one read:Sector performance shifts from headwind to neutral or better.
Confirms the other:Sector performance remains in headwind status or worsens.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows how much money the company might make in the future. A strong backlog helps keep sales going.
Confirms:Backlog increases beyond $2.6 billion.
Disproves:Backlog decreases or stays below $2.6 billion.
Why it matters: Dividend growth shows the company is doing well. It shows that management is confident. This can attract investors looking for income.
Confirms:Announcement of an increase in the cash dividend per share above $0.21.
Disproves:No increase in the cash dividend per share.