Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.62+0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NWBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
NWBI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-24
Lou Torchio: Compensatory arrangement and restricted stock unit grant to the CEO.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income supports the company's record revenue goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income exceeds $51 million, showing growth from Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income falls below $51 million, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: Higher provisions may show more credit risk and hurt overall profits.
Worry ifTotal provision for credit losses is over $5 million.
Less concerning ifTotal provision for credit losses remains at or below $5 million.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could impact revenue and profitability. It reflects the bank's lending strength.
Worry ifAverage loans receivable growth slows below 5% YoY.
Less concerning ifAverage loans receivable growth stays at or above 5.3% YoY.
Why it matters: Low charge-offs show strong credit quality. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet charge-offs each year are below 0.15%.
Worry ifNet charge-offs each year are above 0.20%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$67 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $180 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,013 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady loan growth in this area shows good market reach and demand.
Supportive ifQ3 commercial and industrial loan growth reported at or above 28%.
Worry ifQ3 commercial and industrial loan growth falls below 25%.
Why it matters: An increase in classified loans could signal weakening credit quality. This may raise concerns about future loan performance.
Worry ifClassified loans exceed 4% of total loans in Q3.
Less concerning ifClassified loans remain at or below 4% of total loans in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in net charge-offs could indicate weakening credit quality. This is a key risk area.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are above 0.16%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs stay at or below 0.15%.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may show challenges for management to keep growing.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 3.1% from one quarter to the next.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above 3.1%, confirming strong performance.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows confidence in stable and growing earnings.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance of $0.34 for 2025.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $0.34 for 2025.
Why it matters: A stable or rising net interest margin shows strong profits and good loan management.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin reported at or above 3.75%.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin drops below 3.70%.