Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$53.62-0.94%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OBK — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-28
Other Events On October 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share of its common stock. The cash dividend will be paid on November 30, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 13, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3, and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Charge-offs rose from $454,000 to $2.7 million in 3Q26. A further rise would add to credit costs.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $2.7 million in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are $2.7 million or less in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Past-due loans nearly doubled from 2Q26 to 3Q26. Another rise could point to more stress in business and property loans.
Worry ifPast-due loans 30 to 89 days reach more than $10.3 million in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifPast-due loans 30 to 89 days fall below $10.3 million in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: A higher margin can support bank income. Deposit costs rose in 3Q26, while the Fed raised its rate range.
Watch for4Q26 NIM-FTE rises above 3.94%.
Also watch for4Q26 NIM-FTE falls below 3.94%.
Why it matters: Management set 1.15% as its 4Q26 ROAA run-rate goal. The 3Q26 result was already 1.47%.
Supportive if4Q26 annualized ROAA is at least 1.15%.
Worry if4Q26 annualized ROAA falls below 1.15%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $175 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,224 loss on $10,000 · 12.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.