Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.48+0.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
OBK — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-22
Other Events On July 22, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share of its common stock. The cash dividend will be paid on August 31, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 14, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3, and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The company aims for a 1.15% ROAA by Q4 2026. Progress signals growth potential.
Supportive ifQ2 ROAA run rate reported at or above 1.10%.
Worry ifQ2 ROAA run rate falls below 1.05%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend builds investor trust and shows financial health. Cutting it may show problems.
Watch forThe board declares the dividend remains at $0.25 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forThe board reduces the dividend below $0.25 per share.
Why it matters: The court case outcome can affect financial stability and how investors feel. A bad result can hurt the stock.
Worry ifThe company shares good news or a solution about the court case. This helps limit financial damage.
Less concerning ifThe court case causes big financial penalties or bad news.
Why it matters: Raising the dividend shows strong earnings. It also shows good capital management. This indicates confidence in future results.
Supportive ifThe board announces a dividend increase above $0.25 per share.
Worry ifThe board maintains the dividend at $0.25 per share or lowers it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,690 loss on $10,000 · 16.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs can mean credit problems. This may hurt future earnings and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $1 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $500,000 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks signal confidence in the company's value and capital deployment strategy. This can support stock price.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $20 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Origin Bancorp. It may affect investor sentiment.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median, showing continued strength.
Why it matters: A steady or rising dividend shows financial strength. It boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend stays at $0.25 or goes up.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is cut or not increased from $0.25.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows strong financial performance and supports growth goals. It confirms management's strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 annualized ROAA reaches 1.15% or higher.
Worry ifQ3 annualized ROAA falls below 1.15%.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show trust in the company. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are more than the $121.6 million left.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks happen in the next quarter.