Oil-Dri Corp. of America (ODC)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$87.90-1.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ODC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
ODC — director transition
Dated 2026-04-03
The filing describes amendments to the deferred compensation plan and forms of restricted stock agreements, which are routine administrative changes.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may mean a recovery in the weak materials sector.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback may show management's trust in the company's value. It can help stock price.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the completion of the buyback of 500,000 shares.
Worry ifNo new updates on the buyback program or delays have been reported.
Why it matters: Higher cat litter sales help overall revenue growth. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifCat litter sales exceed $60 million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifCat litter sales fall below $55 million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: If net income is higher than last year, it shows strong financial health. This is true even with market challenges.
Supportive ifQ4 net income exceeds $14.5 million from the previous year.
Worry ifQ4 net income falls below $14.5 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,273 loss on $10,000 · 32.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean costs are rising and profits could fall.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin falls below 26%.
Less concerning ifQ4 gross margin stays at or above 26%.
Why it matters: An increase would show the company cares about giving value to shareholders and being strong.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend greater than $0.225 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend from the current $0.225 per share.
Why it matters: Higher costs from global issues may hurt profits and margins.
Worry ifManagement says transportation and input costs are up due to global issues.
Less concerning ifNo big rise in costs has been reported, even with global unrest.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue in the materials sector may show a recovery and help ODC.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a potential turnaround in a declining sector. It could improve market sentiment.
Supportive ifOil-Dri reports revenue growth above 0% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Negative revenue growth may show problems in the materials sector. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth below 0% compared to the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue growth turns positive compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Higher input costs may lower profits and affect future earnings.
Worry ifCost of goods sold per ton increases more than 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifCost of goods sold per ton increases less than 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher input costs could hurt profit margins and overall financial health.
Worry ifInput costs rise above 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifInput costs remain stable or decrease year over year.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show the company is recovering from past problems and inflation.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.