Old Dominion (ODFL)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$185.87+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ODFL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $186 ODFL trades at 36× p/e — 1.5× the 24× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $154 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $220–$263. Note: our $154 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($220–$263). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $235.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $169.70 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $171.06 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $50.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$220.00 – $263.00 (median $235.00) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-07-30
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 198% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 23.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.99/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $138.93 |
| 15.4 |
| 8.95 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $117.95 | 22.1 | 5.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $127.39 | 20.0 | 6.38 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $43.64 | 1.6 | 26.84 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $178.39 | 34.4 | 5.19 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $34.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $130.26 | 24.0 | 5.44 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $179.39 | 22.1 | 8.12 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $157.61 | 20.0 | 7.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $59.00 | 1.6 | 36.29 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $271.25 | 34.4 | 7.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $237.24 | 22.1 | 10.74 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $191.78 | 20.0 | 9.60 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $71.79 | 1.6 | 44.16 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $330.07 | 34.4 | 9.60 | Analyst | medium |