Old Dominion (ODFL)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$185.87+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ODFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ODFL — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-23
Other Events. On July 23, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share of common stock, payable on September 16, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 2, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: More buybacks may show management's trust in the company. This could help share price.
Supportive ifShare buyback activity is over $88.1 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchase activity falls below $88.1 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a quarterly cash dividend greater than $0.29 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly cash dividend from the current $0.29 per share.
Why it matters: Higher capex could signal aggressive growth plans but may also strain cash flow. This impacts future financial health.
Worry ifCapital spending is above $380 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is at or below $380 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse demand. This could hurt growth and profits.
Worry ifQ2 LTL revenue down year over year worse than -3%.
Less concerning ifLTL revenue decline is less than -3% or shows growth.
Why it matters: A larger increase would signal strong cash flow and confidence in future earnings. This could boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifA dividend increase of more than 3.6% has been announced.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend or a decrease.
Why it matters: Slower net income growth may show weak demand or rising costs. This affects investor trust.
Worry ifNet income growth for Q3 2026 is below 12.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet income growth for Q3 2026 is above 12.5% year over year.
Why it matters: A steady dividend increase shows strong finances. It also shows a focus on shareholders.
Supportive ifBoard announces a cash dividend greater than $0.29 per share.
Worry ifBoard announces a cash dividend less than $0.29 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping high on-time service levels is important for happy customers. A drop may mean problems.
Worry ifOn-time service levels remain at or above 99%.
Less concerning ifOn-time service levels drop below 98% for the quarter.
Why it matters: LTL revenue trends indicate demand for services. A positive trend may signal market share gains.
Supportive ifLTL revenue shows growth of more than 2% year-over-year in Q2.
Worry ifLTL revenue declines more than 2% year-over-year in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on capital spending show how well the company controls costs. This impacts profits.
Worry ifManagement says they spent less than $50 million this quarter.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is over $75 million for the quarter.
Why it matters: Less on-time service can hurt customer satisfaction. It also affects market share.
Worry ifOn-time service percentage drops below 99%.
Less concerning ifOn-time service percentage remains at or above 99%.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it may help Old Dominion's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase shows stronger demand and better efficiency. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifLTL tons per day increase year over year.
Worry ifLTL tons per day decrease year over year.
Why it matters: A larger revenue drop would signal ongoing challenges in demand and growth. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue down year over year worse than -3%.
Less concerning ifQ2 total revenue declines less than -3% or shows growth.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifLook for a quarterly dividend increase above $0.29 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend from the current $0.29 per share.
Why it matters: Growth in LTL revenue per hundredweight shows pricing power and demand strength.
Supportive ifLTL revenue per hundredweight growth exceeds 5.5% year over year.
Worry ifLTL revenue per hundredweight growth falls below 5.5% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower operating ratio means better cost control. It shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating ratio is below 70% for Q3.
Worry ifOperating ratio is above 70% for Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,532 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.