Old Dominion (ODFL)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$179.39+0.96%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ODFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ODFL — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-22
Other Events. On October 22, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share of common stock, payable on December 16, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 2, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The plan includes $180 million for real estate and service centers. Spending near plan would support the network expansion effort.
Supportive ifYear-end results show 2026 capital spending near $380 million. This includes close to $180 million for real estate and service centers.
Worry ifThe company cuts the $380 million plan or reports much lower spending on real estate and service centers.
Why it matters: The ratio fell to 71.5% in Q3 from 74.3% a year ago. A rise above 74% would erase much of that gain.
Worry ifA quarterly report shows the operating ratio tops 74%.
Less concerning ifThe operating ratio stays at or below 72% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher prices per hundredweight helped offset lower shipment volume. A sharp drop could weaken revenue growth and yield discipline.
Worry ifLTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, grows less than 3% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifLTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, grows at least 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Tons per day rose year over year in September after falling 0.1% in Q3. More growth would show demand is gaining strength.
Supportive ifIn the next quarterly report, LTL tons per day are up from a year ago. Shipments per day are also above year-ago levels.
Worry ifLTL tons per day falls year over year, or shipments per day keep shrinking.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $358 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,071 loss on $10,000 · 30.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.