Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.46-0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OFRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OFRM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release incorporated into this Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, excep…
Why it matters: Positive Adjusted EBITDA shows that the company is making more money. It also means they are running operations better.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is positive. This means the company is in better financial shape.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is still negative. This shows the company faces financial problems.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA shows better financial health. It may bring in more investors.
Supportive ifThe next earnings release will show adjusted EBITDA is positive.
Worry ifThe next earnings release will show adjusted EBITDA is negative.
Why it matters: News about the partnership can show how well marketing works. This may impact sales growth.
Watch forNew marketing plans or campaigns with Jennifer Garner were announced.
Also watch forNo news or new plans about the partnership.
Why it matters: Improving sector growth could benefit Once Upon a Farm. It may lead to better sales and investor confidence.
Supportive ifConsumer Staples sector shows revenue growth above 4%.
Worry ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth drops below 4%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $751 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,414 loss on $10,000 · 44.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A expenses compared to sales show better cost control.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of sales decrease from 63% in Q1.
Worry ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of sales increase or stay above 63%.
Why it matters: A further increase in net sales guidance would show strong growth momentum and consumer demand.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 net sales guidance to over $335 million. This is due to strong Q3 results.
Worry ifManagement keeps 2026 net sales guidance under $327 million. This shows weaker growth expectations.
Why it matters: More consumer engagement means brand loyalty and a chance for higher sales.
Supportive ifHousehold penetration and repeat rates rise in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHousehold penetration and repeat rates fall in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better gross margins would show improved cost management and pricing.
Supportive ifGross margin improves to above 36% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 35.9% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in growth could mean less demand or market problems. This raises worries about the company's ability to keep growing.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 36% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth remains at or above 36% year over year.
Why it matters: New products can drive growth and attract new customers. They are key to maintaining competitive advantage in the market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new product launches in Q3.
Worry ifNo new product announcements in Q3.
Why it matters: High SG&A expenses can hurt profitability. If they exceed 45%, it raises concerns about cost management.
Worry ifSG&A expenses exceed 45% of net sales in Q3.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses remain at or below 45% of net sales in Q3.