Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.15-7.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OFRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers
OFRM — director transition
Dated 2026-10-19
Director — Scott Morris: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director to fill a vacancy created by a board expansion, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: The company raised its 2026 sales outlook after 42% Q2 growth. Q3 results test whether that pace can last.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 sales growth is at least 36% from a year ago. The company keeps its $327 million to $335 million 2026 sales outlook.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth is below 36%, or the company cuts its 2026 sales outlook below $327 million.
Why it matters: Management links cooler growth to wider reach and stronger sales per cooler. Q1 showed an 11% rise from the prior quarter.
Supportive ifThe November 5 update shows cooler sales per cooler above the prior quarter, or more gains from newer cooler groups.
Worry ifThe November 5 update reports flat or lower cooler sales per cooler versus the prior quarter.
Why it matters: Q2 margin fell from 40.7% a year earlier. The company cited trade spending and product mix as causes.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 gross margin is above 35.9%, the Q2 level.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is at or below 35.9%, or falls further year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $748 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,470 loss on $10,000 · 64.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.