Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OLMA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.76-10.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OLMA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities above $500 million | It maintains cash above $500 million. | Intact | Cash position falls below $500 million | Cash and cash equivalents: $48.599M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain cash position >$500 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Date unavailable48,599,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is advancing several trials, but recent performance is weak and the evidence snapshot has low confidence.
The evidence does not provide a valuation measure or a clear account of market expectations, so whether OLMA is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Recent financial weakness and an earnings miss are known concerns, while the snapshot does not show what expectations investors already assume about trial outcomes.
Near term, losses are likely to remain elevated as clinical development spending continues, consistent with management’s stated priorities. Management is advancing Phase 3 palazestrant trials and early-stage OP-3136 work, but progress is mixed, and a high industry miss rate makes the next financial update a risk to watch.
Over the next year, a key test is whether OPERA-01 reports top-line data in fall 2026 and whether enrollment in OPERA-02 continues. The multi-year view also depends on the clinical progress of OP-3136, including its new Bayer collaboration, and on broader healthcare-sector momentum; weaker employment data or disappointing results from sector bellwethers could remove that tailwind.
Over a 1-3 year horizon, OLMA remains a high-risk clinical development story with active trial progress but weak recent financial performance and limited evidence to judge valuation or ultimate clinical success. The thesis hinges on trial execution and results, alongside sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company secured a lease for 38,176 square feet of office space. |
| Intact |
| Lease agreement is terminated or office expansion delayed beyond FY26 |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Bayer | Olema partners with Bayer in a clinical trial collaboration. | Intact | Partnership dissolves or no clinical progress reported within 12 months | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.40 → $-2.66 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.48 | $23,122,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.60 | $18,303,860 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.60 | $18,303,860 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.40 | $23,122,684 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.66 | $11,207,165 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.66 | $8,187,661 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.