Olin Corporation (OLN)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.37+2.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OLN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
OLN — divestiture
Dated 2026-08-25
Regulation FD Disclosure On August 25, 2026, Olin and Huntsman issued a joint press release announcing the preliminary results of the Special Meeting and the preliminary results of a special meeting of Huntsman’s stockholders also held on August 25, 2026. A copy of the joint press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Based on the voting results at the Special Meeting and at the special meeting of Huntsman stockholders, and assuming satisfaction o…
Why it matters: Rising raw material costs could hurt margins. Monitoring this will help assess Olin's pricing power and cost management.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show a big rise in raw material costs affecting margins.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows steady or lower raw material costs.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss would show better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss for Q2 2026 is less than the $83 million reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet loss for Q2 2026 is equal to or greater than $83 million, indicating ongoing issues.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Olin can recover from a net income decline. It is crucial for assessing financial health.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a net income improvement from -$83M in Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows continued net income decline or losses.
Why it matters: This shows a profit recovery after a loss in Q1 2026. It shows better operations.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA is $200 million or more.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA is less than $160 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $513 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,370 loss on $10,000 · 43.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The shutdown will show how well Olin handles operational problems.
Worry ifThe shutdown reduces adjusted EBITDA by more than $20 million in the third quarter.
Less concerning ifThe plant starts full operations again. There is no big impact on earnings.
Why it matters: This plan aims to improve talent retention and align management with long-term goals. Its success can impact future performance.
Supportive ifOlin reports positive outcomes from the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan in the next earnings call.
Worry ifOlin shows it has problems with the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan.
Why it matters: These synergies are key for Olin's finances and position after the merger.
Supportive ifOlin reports over $400 million in synergies in three years after the merger.
Worry ifOlin does not report any big synergies in three years.
Why it matters: Getting these synergies is key for making more money after the merger.
Supportive ifManagement says most of the synergies will be achieved in 24 months.
Worry ifManagement says synergies are not happening as planned. This slows down the benefits.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders. Changes may mean money problems.
Watch forOlin maintains the quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share.
Also watch forOlin cuts or stops the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: The merger will make a bigger chemicals company. This will help its market position.
Supportive ifFinal approvals are received. The merger will close by the first half of 2027.
Worry ifRegulatory approvals are not granted. The merger is now delayed longer than expected.
Why it matters: Higher legal costs can hurt finances and cash flow. This may affect shareholder returns.
Worry ifTotal legal costs reported exceed $100 million in the second half of 2026.
Less concerning ifLegal costs remain below or equal to $100 million.
Why it matters: Rising raw material costs can hurt margins. It shows how external factors affect Olin's operations.
Worry ifRaw material costs stabilize or decline, easing pressure on margins.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs continue to rise significantly due to the Iran conflict.
Why it matters: Improving this segment is key for making more money. It could show signs of recovery.
Supportive ifSegment earnings show a significant increase from Q2 2026.
Worry ifSegment earnings decline further from Q2 2026 levels.
Why it matters: Caustic soda prices affect revenue and profit. Better prices can show improved market conditions.
Supportive ifCaustic soda prices rose by over 10% from last quarter. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifCaustic soda prices fell by over 10% from last quarter. This signals weak demand.
Why it matters: Regulatory approval is crucial for completing the merger. It will determine if Olin can proceed with the merger plans.
Supportive ifRegulators approve the merger with no big conditions or delays.
Worry ifRegulators reject the merger or add big conditions that delay it.
Why it matters: This shows ongoing problems in the Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $160 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is more than $200 million.
Why it matters: Finishing this will improve profits and efficiency. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the Beyond250 initiative is complete and cost cuts were achieved.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or failures in meeting cost reduction goals.