Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.77+2.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OMDA
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23, OMDA's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 71× p/e (3.5× the 20× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~58% near-term growth vs our ~23% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $14 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $24–$35. Note: our $14 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($24–$35). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $28.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $13.95 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $17.42 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $5.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$24.00 – $35.00 (median $28.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-08-12
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $4.90 |
| 15.6 |
| 0.31 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $6.56 | 20.4 | 0.32 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $9.26 | 1.9 | 4.84 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $8.87 | 27.5 | 0.32 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $3.94 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $7.26 | 20.4 | 0.36 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $9.97 | 20.4 | 0.49 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $13.33 | 1.9 | 6.97 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $13.48 | 27.5 | 0.49 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $13.19 | 20.4 | 0.65 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $14.76 | 1.9 | 7.72 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $17.83 | 27.5 | 0.65 | Analyst | medium |