Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.77+2.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $14M-$20M in 2026: EBITDA $21M-$27M vs $14M-$20M target.
Omada aims for 25% revenue growth in 2026. Profit should improve to $14M-$20M EBITDA. The company is working to fix its cash flow problems. Recent earnings beats show progress.
Omada lacks pricing power, which may slow revenue growth. Cash flow is negative and getting worse. Profit gains are uncertain and may not materialize.
The market expects about 25% revenue growth. Our fair value is 29% below the Street median, reflecting caution on profit and cash flow.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $10 million in FY26
Omada aims to increase Adjusted EBITDA to a range of $14 million to $20 million in 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a growth-oriented thesis with a focus on revenue expansion and member growth. The current state is mixed, as management has set ambitious targets while navigating a challenging economic backdrop.
The market appears to have priced in a high valuation, reflecting expectations for strong growth. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that the current price may not fully justify the risks and uncertainties present.
Management is on track to achieve significant revenue growth and has shown improvement in adjusted EBITDA, though profitability remains mixed. Near-term risks include potential earnings misses, influenced by broader economic conditions.
The thesis hinges on the ability of OMDA to maintain its growth trajectory and avoid cutting guidance, as well as the performance of sector peers that could impact overall market sentiment. Economic indicators, such as job reports, will also play a crucial role.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The company aims for 30% revenue growth in 2026. It also targets an increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $21M-$27M in 2026.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Cash flow remains negative through FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $300 million in FY26
Drive significant revenue growth through expanding members, commercial channels, and new care offerings.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $61 million in 2025-Q2 to $88 million in 2026-Q2, a 43% increase. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint was raised to approximately $337 million, representing about 30% growth over 2025. The trajectory is delivering strong growth consistent with management's stated goal.
“Raised full-year outlook represents approximately 30% year-over-year revenue growth.”
“Revenue in the range of $322 million to $330 million, midpoint representing 25% growth compared with 2025.”
Overall, OMDA's long-term thesis remains intact, supported by strong management execution and growth metrics. Not investment advice.