Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.95-2.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.45 → 0.45 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OMDA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $14M-$20M in 2026 | A primary condition in Omada Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $14M to $20M. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $10 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OMDA is a high-growth healthcare business with improving profitability, but it is still loss-making under the evidence snapshot’s value measure. The long-term thesis is intact after recent strong results, though elevated risk and low model confidence make the picture uncertain.
The valuation is at a 2.63 premium to peers, and the evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting limited room between current expectations and the model’s view; the valuation case depends on growth and execution continuing.
Near term, revenue grew 43% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. Member growth and wider commercial channels support the multi-year growth story, while adjusted EBITDA progress is mixed and the business remains loss-making on the value measure. Near-term risk is elevated: earnings have been erratic, and the company is smaller-cap, though the stated miss risk is low.
The multi-year thesis depends on OMDA sustaining growth and translating it into stronger profitability. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage management credibility, while weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names. Continued earnings strength from sector peers such as BTSG, TEM, and HQY would support the sector backdrop.
As of 2026-10-17, OMDA’s long-term thesis remains intact, with strong recent growth and improving profitability offset by elevated risk and a premium valuation versus peers. The key test is whether execution supports the raised guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is working to fix its cash flow problems. |
| Improving |
| Cash flow remains negative through FY26 |
Cash from operations: $4.007M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations improves to positive by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20264,007,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve about $326M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Omada Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$326 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $300 million in FY26 | Revenue: $87.835M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$326 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202687,835,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the year ending December 31, 2026, Omada Health expects: • Revenue in the range of $334 million to $340 million, with the midpoint representing 30% growth compared with 2025; this range is up from the prior range of $322 million to $330 million.” “Revenue grew 43% year-over-year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.47 → $0.45 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.47 | $392,213,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.50 | $395,272,830 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.50 | $395,272,830 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.53 | $402,944,650 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.42 | $392,293,886 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.46 | $407,610,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.46 | $407,638,759 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.46 | $407,638,759 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.46 | $407,638,759 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.45 | $407,776,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.45 | $407,775,122 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.45 | $407,866,031 | 4 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.