Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.43+4.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OMDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 355 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
OMDA — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
CEO — Sean Duffy: Sean Duffy is transitioning to Executive Chairman, and Wei-Li Shao will become the new CEO.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue grew 43% to $88 million. Q3 growth above last year's $85 million would keep the sales trend moving up.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue is above $85 million. Year-over-year growth stays positive.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is $85 million or less, below the Q3 2025 level.
Why it matters: The change puts a new CEO in charge of strategy and results. A smooth handoff can keep plans on course.
Watch forOmada confirms Shao will become CEO on January 1, 2027. Duffy will become Executive Chair.
Also watch forOmada delays or changes the January 1, 2027 handoff, or names a new CEO.
Why it matters: Member growth supports Omada's sales growth. Growth eased from 51% in Q1 to 45% in Q2.
Supportive ifThe next reported member count is at least 40% above the same quarter last year.
Worry ifThe next reported member count grows less than 40% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $640 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,686 loss on $10,000 · 56.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.