Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.77+2.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OMDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 57.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OMDA — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
CEO — Sean Duffy: Sean Duffy is transitioning to Executive Chairman, and Wei-Li Shao will become the new CEO.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key updates on revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow. It will shape investor sentiment.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EBITDA growth in line with management's targets.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows big drops in revenue or EBITDA.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good performance. It helps the company move toward making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $24 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $21 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A successful rollout could improve services and bring in more members.
Supportive ifLook for updates on the successful launch. Members are interested in the cholesterol program.
Worry ifNo news or bad feedback about the cholesterol program rollout.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target shows Omada's strong demand and execution. It confirms management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 30% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 30% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $621 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,915 loss on $10,000 · 59.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is vital for sustaining operations and growth. Negative cash flow could raise concerns.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows the company is making more money and working better.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA lands between $21 million and $27 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA will be less than $21 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting the growth target shows Omada is on track to achieve its annual goal. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 25% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: This event will provide insights into the company's long-term strategy and growth plans.
Watch forGood feedback and new plans shared during Investor Day.
Also watch forNo new plans or bad market reactions after Investor Day.
Why it matters: Slower member growth may show less demand for Omada's services. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifTotal members growth reported below 40% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal members growth remains at or above 40% year over year.
Why it matters: A significant member increase shows strong demand for Omada's services. It supports growth strategies.
Supportive ifTotal members exceed 1.5 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal members remain below 1.5 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong member growth shows demand for Omada's services and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifTotal members increase by at least 40% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifTotal members grow less than 40% YoY in Q3.