Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Omeros Corp. (OMER)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.07-6.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.06 → 1.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OMER yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Continue debt reduction via buybacks | Recent buybacks reduce debt and improve capital structure. | Intact | no further buybacks or debt reduction announced | Qualitative: $30.5M debt repurchased (Jul 2026) 8-K filings confirm $14.5M note repurchase completed July 20, 2026, and $16.0M expected completion, validating the capital allocation driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk commercial-growth and pipeline story, not a profitable compounder today. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
OMER carries a durable premium and is valued about 1.81 times its peers, so expectations are already elevated. The evidence points to an expensive valuation, but not the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, YARTEMLEA’s gross revenues rose from $11.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $32.2 million in the second, supporting management’s commercial expansion priority. The company also reduced its 2029 Notes principal and future interest costs, while pipeline progress is mixed; it remains loss-making, and a guidance cut or weaker employment data could add pressure. Recent results are described as neutral overall, and earnings surprises have been erratic despite a recent earnings beat.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on whether YARTEMLEA sustains market expansion and whether pipeline programs advance on the stated timelines. A guidance cut is a meaningful downside risk, while continued earnings strength from Healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum; the evidence does not establish how these factors will resolve.
For the 1-to-3-year view, OMER has visible commercial progress and an intact thesis, but persistent losses, high risk, and a premium valuation leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Omeros Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.38 by FY26. |
| Intact |
| EPS remains negative or below $0.38 by FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive cash flow by 2027 | Omeros expects positive cash flow by 2027, driven by the strong launch of YARTEMLEA. | Improving | fails to achieve positive cash flow by end of 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue toward $2.1 billion by 2025 | A primary condition in Omeros Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue approaches $2.1B by FY25. | Intact | revenue falls below $0.34B by FY25 | Revenue: $28.529M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue approaches $2.1B by FY25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202628,529,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.28 → $1.06 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.28 | $143,086,533 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.28 | $143,086,533 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.38 | $143,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.38 | $143,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.38 | $143,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.38 | $143,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.38 | $143,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.38 | $143,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.38 | $143,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.08 | $143,019,867 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.00 | $215,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.06 | $221,316,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.06 | $221,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.06 | $221,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.06 | $221,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.06 | $221,323,933 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.