Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
OneMain Holdings Inc (OMF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.97+2.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.52 → 8.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OMF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities at or above $739 million | A primary condition in OneMain Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=739 million USD. | Intact | cash from operating activities falls below $700 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $808M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=739 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026808,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OMF is a consumer lender with a growth-led, credit-sensitive business. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: receivables and originations have grown, but credit progress is mixed and recent financial performance is below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence calls OMF cheap, but also shows a durable premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the model’s view. Priced-in fragility is low, though the recent earnings miss is a near-term concern.
Over the multi-year thesis, receivables and originations have expanded, while net charge-offs rose and delinquencies declined, leaving credit quality signals mixed. Near term, the latest quarter missed expectations; expenses also rose, and the evidence notes a low estimated miss risk despite a history that includes a deep miss.
The key swing factor is whether OMF can keep growing loans without further deterioration in credit results or a guidance cut. Rate moves and broader Financials sector momentum also matter, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
The 1-3 year read is a growth-oriented lending thesis with a cheap valuation signal, but execution and credit quality remain important uncertainties. The recent miss keeps the thesis under watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend per share at or above $1.05 | It keeps paying steady dividends near $1.05 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $1.04 next quarter | Dividend per share: $1.05 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.05 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20261.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income at or above $226 million next quarter | OneMain Holdings grows net income from $204M to $226M recently. | Intact | net income falls below $204 million next quarter | Net income: $185M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=226 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026185,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 0.6% next year | A supporting condition in OneMain Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.6% YoY. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 0.6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.56 → $8.17 · observed estimates
$5.58B → $5.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.56 | $5,583,245,100 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.56 | $5,583,245,100 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.56 | $5,583,245,100 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.56 | $5,583,245,100 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.56 | $5,587,605,049 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.56 | $5,583,245,100 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.56 | $5,583,245,100 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.61 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.61 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.59 | $5,651,126,120 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.61 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.61 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.61 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.61 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.57 | $5,652,044,140 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.60 | $5,668,353,667 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.59 | $5,659,023,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.56 | $5,623,261,587 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.56 | $5,628,690,158 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.56 | $5,628,690,158 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.56 | $5,628,690,158 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.55 | $5,636,836,114 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.55 | $5,636,836,114 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.52 | $5,636,836,114 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.52 | $5,639,550,400 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.50 | $5,639,550,400 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.52 | $5,661,364,686 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.52 | $5,661,364,686 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.52 | $5,661,364,686 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.52 | $5,661,364,686 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.52 | $5,661,364,686 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.50 | $5,667,422,971 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.53 | $5,697,991,829 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.53 | $5,697,991,829 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.52 | $5,697,991,829 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.52 | $5,697,991,829 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.52 | $5,697,991,829 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.49 | $5,697,991,829 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.49 | $5,697,991,829 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.49 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.49 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.49 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.48 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.48 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.48 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.48 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.48 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.48 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.48 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.46 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.46 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.46 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.46 | $5,698,025,786 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.46 | $5,698,073,684 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.46 | $5,698,073,684 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.30 | $5,708,250,337 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.30 | $5,708,250,337 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.27 | $5,708,250,337 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.20 | $5,691,122,588 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.17 | $5,713,342,875 | 9 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.