Reading ONC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONC free→Reading ONC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONC free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, ONC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 247% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $264.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $264, ONC's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 59× p/e (3.6× the 16× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~247% near-term growth vs our ~48% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $76 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $340–$436. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 247% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 48%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.29 → $1.59 (+23.3% / 30d). 8 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 96% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 41.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,105.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ONC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) As previously disclosed in the definitive proxy statement for the 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of BeOne Medicines Ltd. (the “Company”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on April 28, 2026 (the “Proxy Statement”), Mr. Michael Goller, Mr. Ranjeev Krishana, Dr. Corazon (Corsee) D. Sanders a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$340.00 – $436.00 (median $409.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ONC BEONE MEDICINES LTD | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding BRUKINSA's leadership position in the U.S. and global markets.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.1B in 2025-Q1 to $1.5B in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in expanding BRUKINSA's market presence. Management's focus on global expansion is delivering results.
“BRUKINSA's leadership position in the U.S. and continued global expansion.”
“BRUKINSA's expansion in Europe and other key markets.”
Maintain a GAAP gross margin in the high-80% range for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit was $1.35B in 2025-Q4 and $1.34B in 2026-Q1, maintaining the high-80% margin range. The trajectory shows consistent margin performance.
“GAAP gross margin % High-80% range.”
“GAAP gross margin % High-80% range.”
Target GAAP operating income of $750 to $850 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $185M in 2025-Q4 to $250M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the $750-$850M target. The trajectory indicates positive movement towards the goal.
“GAAP operating income 2 $700 - $800 million $750 - $850 million.”
“GAAP Gross Margin % Mid to high -80% range Unchanged.”
“GAAP operating income $700 - $800 million.”