Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.70 → $1.70 · observed estimates
OneWater Marine, Inc. (ONEW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.69-8.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.70 → 1.70 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONEW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Ocean Bio-Chem acquisition | A supporting condition in OneWater Marine, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is complete and accretive. | Intact | Acquisition fails to contribute positively by FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.70 → $1.70 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not yet a steady earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: leverage and adjusted EBITDA are improving, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and the company remains loss-making.
ONEW is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is notable, but the evidence does not define exactly what the market assumes; priced-in fragility is rated low because expensive valuation is not combined with weak and turbulent conditions.
Near term, earnings execution is uncertain after misses in April and July, and the risk label has risen to high. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $37.8 million in the third quarter, while leverage fell to 3.7x, but same-store sales remained below management’s flat full-year goal.
The next earnings call is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would add pressure to an already uncertain earnings picture. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on meeting the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA goal, stabilizing same-store sales, and sustaining lower leverage; broader consumer-sector momentum could also help or fade depending on bellwether results.
The 1-to-3-year thesis has signs of operational progress, especially in margins and leverage, but sales weakness and inconsistent earnings leave execution risk high. The central question is whether those improvements become durable while sales stabilize. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| OneWater aims for adjusted EBITDA between $60M and $80M in 2026. |
| Improving |
| Adjusted EBITDA falls below $60M in FY 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $1.83 billion next quarter | Revenue is expected near $1.83 billion next quarter. | Broken | Revenue falls below $1.78B next quarter | Revenue: $530.711M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.83B. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Jul 31, 2026530,711,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain flat dealership same-store sales for FY 2026 | A supporting condition in OneWater Marine, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is flat YoY. | Intact | Same-store sales decline year over year in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “When factoring in the lost revenue from exited brands, the divestiture of OBCI, and industry retail performance, the Company expects dealership same-store sales to be down low to mid-single digits year over year and total revenue to be in the range of $1.75 billion to $1.80 billion.” “When factoring in the lost revenue from exited brands and the divestiture of OBCI, the Company expects dealership same-store sales to be flat year over year and total revenue to be in the range of $1.78 billion to $1.88 billion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.98B → $1.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.70 | $1,983,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.