OneWater Marine, Inc. (ONEW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.70+7.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONEW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ONEW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Why it matters: Higher revenue shows recovery and good sales strategies. A drop would mean ongoing problems.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $442 million reported in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $442 million.
Why it matters: The sale's effect on revenue is key to understanding future results.
Worry ifTotal revenue shows a decrease greater than 4% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue dropped less than 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A strong recovery in earnings would boost investor confidence after the miss.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows a big improvement from the April earnings miss.
Worry ifAnother Q2 earnings miss shows that problems are still happening.
Why it matters: Flat sales show stability in the dealership business. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifSame-store sales reported flat or slightly positive for the first half of 2026.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline year over year in the first half of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$213 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $599 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,077 loss on $10,000 · 50.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Continued debt repayment shows financial discipline and strengthens the balance sheet. Lack of progress could raise concerns about liquidity.
Supportive ifCompany repays more than $57 million in debt during Q2.
Worry ifDebt repayment is less than $57 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A low leverage ratio shows financial stability. This lowers risk for investors.
Supportive ifAdjusted net debt leverage ratio stays below 4.0x.
Worry ifAdjusted net debt leverage ratio rises above 4.0x.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company is on track for its full-year goals. It would signal effective cost management and potential for recovery.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 reaches $60 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 falls below $60 million.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition is crucial for growth strategy. It expands market reach.
Supportive ifThe Ocean Bio-Chem acquisition is now complete.
Worry ifAcquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond expectations.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows the company is managing challenges well. It reflects overall business health.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance is confirmed to be between $1.75 billion and $1.80 billion.
Worry ifQ4 revenue guidance is lowered below $1.75 billion.
Why it matters: Same-store sales are a key measure of business health. Declines may signal ongoing challenges.
Worry ifSame-store sales remain flat or increase year over year in upcoming quarters.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales decline further, worsening from the current -2% in Q3.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps the balance sheet and gives more financial options.
Supportive ifTotal long-term debt decreases further from $348.1 million as of June 30, 2026.
Worry ifTotal long-term debt goes up or stays the same. This shows financial stress.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows OneWater is making more money. It shows management can control costs and grow.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 falls within the range of $60 million to $80 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 is less than $60 million.
Why it matters: Stable same-store sales show OneWater can keep customer demand. This is important for revenue growth.
Supportive ifSame-store sales show no decline or increase year over year.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline further beyond the current -2%.