OneWater Marine, Inc. (ONEW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.61+4.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONEW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
ONEW — officer change
Dated 2026-09-08
Director — Jef frey B. Lamkin: A director resigned from the board and audit committee, resulting in a reduction of board size, with no reported disagreement.
Why it matters: The OBCI sale lowered reported service sales. Sales growth without it would show if the rest of the business is improving.
Supportive ifService, parts and other sales, excluding OBCI, rise year over year in the next results.
Worry ifService, parts and other sales, excluding OBCI, fall year over year in the next results.
Why it matters: OneWater reached its debt target early, with leverage at 3.7x in the third quarter. Staying below 4.0x would support its balance sheet progress.
Supportive ifThe next reported adjusted net debt leverage ratio stays below 4.0x.
Worry ifThe next reported adjusted net debt leverage ratio rises to 4.0x or higher.
Why it matters: Management said the retail market is slow and cut its industry view to a high-single-digit decline. The report can show if demand is steadying.
Watch forThe Nov. 12 report shows same-store sales above the prior quarter's -2% and keeps FY 2026 guidance intact or higher.
Also watch forThe Nov. 12 report shows same-store sales below -2% or cuts FY 2026 guidance again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $606 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,613 loss on $10,000 · 46.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.