Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.27-1.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPAD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
successful reverse stock split approval | The reverse stock split helps fix capital structure. | Intact | reverse stock split is not approved or reversed | 1-for-10 split implemented vs 1-for-5 to 1-for-50 target News confirms implementation of a 1-for-10 reverse stock split on 2026-06-05, meeting the qualitative approval target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround, not a durable compounder today. The thesis state is watch: the signal recently shifted from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains well below its industry cohort.
OPAD is described as cheap versus peers, but model confidence is low and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; the evidence points to sector turbulence rather than an unusually expensive valuation combined with weak fundamentals.
Near-term results remain uncertain: OPAD missed its most recent quarter, and the estimated chance of another miss is 46%. Adjusted EBITDA losses improved for a second straight quarter, and contribution profit per transaction rose, but transactions fell to 295 in 2026-Q2 versus management’s roughly 1,000-per-quarter goal. Management’s end-2026 goal of positive Adjusted EBITDA is still unproven, with a CFO transition and a new financial obligation adding uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued margin improvement and progress toward positive Adjusted EBITDA, alongside a recovery in transaction volume. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts could help the sector, while weakness at major real estate peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OPAD’s case rests on turning margin gains into sustained operating progress, while its weak recent performance and high execution risk remain central concerns. The evidence is mixed, and the turnaround has not yet been demonstrated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations turned positive, rising from -$10.2M to $9.0M. |
| Broken |
| cash from operations falls below zero beyond 2026-Q1 |
Cash from operations: $-25.854M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 9.0 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 3, 2026-25,854,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
reduce operating losses to at least -$9.0M in 2026-Q1 | Offerpad is cutting losses, improving operating income from -$11.5M to -$9.0M. | Broken | operating income remains below -$9.0M beyond 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-9.355M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -9.0 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 2026-9,355,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
revenue near $85 million in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in Offerpad Solutions Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~85 million USD. | Broken | revenue falls below $80 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $78.069M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~85 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 202678,069,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.41 → $-4.21 · observed estimates
$0.56B → $0.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.76 | $556,398,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.76 | $556,398,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.76 | $556,398,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.76 | $556,398,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.41 | $556,368,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.76 | $556,398,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.76 | $556,398,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.56 | $639,381,700 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.56 | $639,381,700 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.56 | $639,381,700 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.56 | $639,432,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.23 | $667,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.21 | $623,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.