Reading OPCH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPCH free→Reading OPCH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPCH free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Management's recent track record has been steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality is neutral, indicating mixed backing of reported profits by cash. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 OPCH trades at 13× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $22–$39. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.48 → $0.47 (-0.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 9 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$127.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$332.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,665.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of the company's performance. A drop below 10% signals potential issues in revenue generation.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OPCH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Option Care Health, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The press release and presentation include certain non-GAAP financial measures described therein. Reconciliation between any non-GAAP financial measures presented and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$22.00 – $39.00 (median $30.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OPCH Option Care Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Taking decisive actions to reaccelerate revenue growth trajectory and drive greater long-term value creation.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations to support internal investments and share repurchases.
Focused on rebuilding momentum from reset through coverage, conversion, and enhanced service levels.
Management continues to emphasize revenue growth as a key priority.
Management is committed to improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: A big drop in operating income shows financial health is getting worse. It also shows management is having trouble making more money.
Confirms:Operating income drops more than 20% from Q1.
Disproves:Operating income drops less than 20% or gets better from Q1.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for funding growth initiatives. It shows the company is managing its finances better.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is up from last quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is flat or down from last quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change strategy and performance. This exit may affect growth plans.
Confirms:New growth plans or projects were announced. They show a positive direction.
Disproves:No new plans were announced, or current projects are struggling.
Chief Growth Officer — Christopher L. Grashoff: Mr. Grashoff will depart from his role as Chief Growth Officer.