OptimumBank Holdings Inc (OPHC)
AMEXFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.84-3.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 231 industry peers
OPHC — private placement
Dated 2026-08-19
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 19, 2026, OptimumBank Holding Company, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Subordinated Note Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain institutional accredited investors and qualified institutional buyers (the “Purchasers”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company sold and issued $35.0 million in aggregate principal amount of its 7.50% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Company is…
Why it matters: OptimumFinance made its first $14.2 million loan in Q2. More loans would show whether this new business adds income.
Supportive ifA Q3 filing reports at least one new OptimumFinance loan beyond the first $14.2 million loan.
Worry ifA Q3 filing reports no new OptimumFinance loans, or reports a loss tied to the first loan.
Why it matters: The bank's margin rose to 4.57% in Q2. Holding above 4.50% would support income from loans and deposits.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin is at least 4.50%, up from 4.49% in Q1.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin falls below 4.50%.
Why it matters: Q2 loans and deposits both rose by about $120 million. If deposits lag, the bank may need more costly funding.
Worry ifQ3 deposit growth is less than $100 million while gross loans grow by at least $100 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 deposits grow by at least $100 million and keep pace with loan growth.
Why it matters: Loans grew by $126.2 million in Q2. A sharp slowdown could weaken income growth and test the bank's growth plan.
Worry ifQ3 gross loans grow by less than $100 million from the Q2 balance of $1.217 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross loans grow by at least $100 million from the Q2 balance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,535 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The notes carry a 7.50% rate that can float. A higher rate would raise funding costs and may weigh on earnings.
Worry ifA company filing reports that the notes' floating rate has risen above 7.50%.
Less concerning ifA company filing reports that the notes' rate remains at or below 7.50%.
Why it matters: Q2 had a $0.4 million credit loss reversal. A new provision could signal that loan risks are rising.
Worry ifQ3 credit loss expense is above zero, after the $0.4 million reversal in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 credit loss expense is zero or a reversal, with net charge-offs below $100,000.