OptimumBank Holdings Inc (OPHC)
AMEXFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.98+0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
OPHC — private placement
Dated 2026-08-19
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 19, 2026, OptimumBank Holding Company, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Subordinated Note Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain institutional accredited investors and qualified institutional buyers (the “Purchasers”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company sold and issued $35.0 million in aggregate principal amount of its 7.50% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Company is…
Why it matters: Ongoing loan growth shows the company's banking strategy is working.
Supportive ifGross loans increase by more than 10% from $1.22 billion in Q2 to over $1.34 billion in Q3.
Worry ifLoan growth falls below 10% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin means more profit. It shows good loan pricing.
Supportive ifQ2 net interest margin is over 4.57%. This shows more profit.
Worry ifQ2 net interest margin is under 4.49%. This may mean pricing problems.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows the bank can manage its loans well.
Supportive ifNet interest income for Q3 is over $14.7 million. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifNet interest income is below $14.7 million. This suggests problems in loan management.
Why it matters: Higher earnings per share show that the company is making money and doing well.
Supportive ifEarnings per share reported above $0.28 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarnings per share reported below $0.28 for Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $232 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,347 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company performance. Watching Q2 results will show the impact.
Watch forQ2 results reflect strong performance under new CEO Moishe Gubin.
Also watch forQ2 results show a decline in performance post-CEO transition.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the company is doing well and growing.
Supportive ifQ3 net income surpasses $9.4 million, representing over 40% growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is less than 40% compared to Q2.
Why it matters: A new CEO can shift company direction and strategy. This may affect performance and investor sentiment.
Watch forThe company might see positive changes in its strategy or performance after the CEO change.
Also watch forThe company might face negative changes in its strategy or performance after the CEO change.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects overall market sentiment.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median of 15% for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% for the sector.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS growth shows the company's ability to generate profits. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS exceeds $0.20, continuing the upward trend from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS falls below $0.20, breaking the growth trend.
Why it matters: A bigger net interest margin shows good management of income and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 4.60% in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin declines below 4.50% in Q3.
Why it matters: More upgrades from analysts would show more trust in OptimumBank's performance and plans.
Supportive ifAt least one more analyst upgrades their rating on OptimumBank next quarter.
Worry ifNo new upgrades or downgrades occur in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Low credit loss expense shows strong credit quality. This means good risk management and profit.
Supportive ifCredit loss expense remains at or below $0.4 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCredit loss expense exceeds $0.4 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs and revenue well. This helps growth.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is over $6.198 million. This shows the company is still growing.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is below $6.198 million. This shows a setback for the company.
Why it matters: A drop in credit loss expense shows good credit quality and risk management.
Supportive ifCredit loss expense shows a reversal again in Q3.
Worry ifCredit loss expense increases in Q3 compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Growing deposits are important for funding loans and keeping enough cash on hand.
Supportive ifTotal deposits grow by at least $100 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits increase by less than $100 million in Q3 2026.