Optex Systems Holdings Inc (OPXS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.29-0.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPXS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 OPXS trades at 19× p/e, below its 30× p/e peer median. Our $13 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| graham number | 12M | $7.03 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $22.33 | 27.0 | 0.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $16.63 | 30.3 | 0.55 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $18.91 | 3.3 | 5.74 | TTM | high |
| residual income |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 118% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.32/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $4.63 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $11.59 | 21.1 | 0.55 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $27.49 | 30.3 | 0.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $24.74 | 3.3 | 7.51 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $19.15 | 21.1 | 0.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $33.60 | 30.3 | 1.11 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $30.24 | 3.3 | 9.18 | guidance | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $23.41 | 21.1 | 1.11 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |