Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp
Optex Systems Holdings Inc (OPXS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.08-9.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.01 → 1.01 EPS · FY ending Sep 28, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPXS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure of $2.4 million to expand capacity and capabilities | The company plans to invest $2.4 million in capital to expand into adjacent markets. | Intact | Capital expenditure falls below $2 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $207,000 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $2.4 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026207,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 16, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap industrial growth and execution story, not a steady compounder at present. The multi-year view is intact, supported by progress on margins and plans to expand into adjacent markets, while revenue growth remains unproven.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with the market’s expectations below the model’s estimate. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated expectations.
Near term, revenue is under pressure: third-quarter revenue and nine-month revenue both declined year over year, even as gross margin improved. Management expects stronger second-half revenue from converting quotations into awards, but the next earnings report carries added risk after consecutive misses and a recent guidance reaffirmation.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether new orders convert into revenue and planned capacity spending supports growth, while margin gains continue. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup; continued strength or weakness from industrial bellwethers could also affect the sector backdrop.
OPXS has a plausible longer-term growth case, backed by improving margins, but falling revenue and high near-term risk leave execution unresolved over the next one to three years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, the Company invested approximately $1.1 million in capital equipment and committed an additional $2.8 million to expand manufacturing capacity, support new product lines, and enhance rapid prototyping and research capabilities.” “During the first six months of fiscal 2026, the Company invested approximately $0.8 million in capital equipment and has an additional $1.1 million in committed capital expenditures focused on expanding manufacturing capacity, supporting new product lines, and enhancing rapid prototyping and research capabilities.”
Revenue reaches approximately $44 million in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Optex Systems Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$44 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $41 million in FY26 | Revenue: $9.729M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$44 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20269,729,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Outlook Based on its funded backlog and anticipated contract awards, the Company continues to expect stronger revenue performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and is reiterating its previously issued full-year revenue guidance of between $43 million and $45 million, compared to $41.3 million during fiscal 2025.” “In addition, the Company currently has more than $24 million in outstanding customer quotations for new products and expects to convert approximately $10 million to $12.5 million of those opportunities into awards over the next six months.” Revenue was $9.627 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Execution of $10 million share repurchase program | Management is executing a $10 million share buyback program to return capital. | Intact | No meaningful share repurchases executed by end of FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.01 → $1.01 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.01 | $57,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.