Optex Systems Holdings Inc (OPXS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.91-2.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPXS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
OPXS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: Those finished units slipped from Q3 to Q4. Shipping them would support the revenue recovery plan.
Supportive ifThe company says it shipped the delayed periscope units. It records about $1.5 million in Q4 revenue from them.
Worry ifThe delayed units are still unshipped after Q4. Or the company says delivery was delayed again.
Why it matters: Q3 margin rose to 34.2% from 28.5% a year earlier. Holding that gain would show the pricing and plant gains remain in place.
Supportive ifFiscal Q4 gross margin is at least 34.2%.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 gross margin falls below 28.5%, the year-ago Q3 level.
Why it matters: The $43 million to $45 million full-year range needs a strong final quarter. Q3 revenue was $9.7 million.
Supportive ifFiscal Q4 revenue is at least $14.5 million, putting full-year revenue at $43 million or more.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 revenue is below $14.5 million. Full-year revenue is then below $43 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $563 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,765 loss on $10,000 · 47.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.