Optex Systems Holdings Inc (OPXS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.29-0.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPXS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OPXS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: Getting these contract awards would support management's optimism. It would help revenue growth in the next quarters.
Supportive ifContract awards for laser filter units worth $4 million are announced. This confirms demand for new products.
Worry ifNo contract awards for laser filter units in the next three to six months. This shows possible delays or demand issues.
Why it matters: A new CFO could help stabilize management. This may improve investor confidence after the recent departure.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO appointment.
Also watch forNo progress on the CFO search after three months.
Why it matters: More new orders are important for revenue growth. They support management's plan.
Supportive ifNew order bookings increase by more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifNew order bookings decline or stay flat year over year.
Why it matters: The company expects Q2 revenue between $10.5 million and $11 million. Meeting this range signals growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $10.5 million. This matches or beats the guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was under $10.5 million. This shows possible problems with order bookings.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $574 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,319 loss on $10,000 · 43.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More new orders would show a recovery in demand. This would support management's revenue outlook for late 2026.
Supportive ifNew orders go over $19.5 million. This shows better demand and progress on backlog.
Worry ifNew orders stay below $19.5 million. This suggests ongoing weakness in demand.
Why it matters: New contract awards are crucial for revenue growth. Delays could hurt financial performance.
Supportive ifAt least $10 million in new contracts awarded within the next three months.
Worry ifNo new contracts awarded in the next three months, indicating ongoing delays.
Why it matters: A new CFO can help manage finances better. This may restore investor confidence after the recent change.
Supportive ifA new CFO is appointed before the next earnings report on August 11.
Worry ifIf no CFO is named by the next earnings report, it raises worries about financial oversight.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding order bookings signals strong revenue growth. This supports the company's growth strategy.
Supportive ifNew order bookings in Q3 exceed $10 million, aligning with full-year guidance of $43 million to $45 million.
Worry ifNew order bookings are below $8 million. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program may show management's trust in the company's worth.
Watch forThe company announced a $10 million share buyback program.
Also watch forNo news or delays in the share buyback program. This may show problems with capital use.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may mean a better future for Optex Systems.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rate increases back toward 8% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth rate stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A revenue increase shows recovery from delays. It supports management's view for better performance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $10 million. This shows recovery from earlier delays.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $9.7 million. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: New contracts would show management's faith in getting quotes. This would help revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew contract awards reach or exceed $10 million from the current $24 million in quotations.
Worry ifContract awards are under $5 million. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins show good operational efficiency and pricing. This boosts profits.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 35%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifGross margin is under 30%. This suggests operational problems.