Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ORIC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.49-9.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ORIC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway into second half of 2028 and beyond | The company aims to maintain cash runway into the second half of 2028 and beyond. | Intact | Cash and investments fall short of sustaining operations into 2H 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The company expects its cash and investments to fund the operating plan into 2H 2028.” “The company expects its cash and investments to fund the operating plan into 2H 2028.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder: the company is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and risk is elevated. The long-term thesis is on watch, with low overall confidence, as key programs advance but financial delivery remains hard to assess.
The snapshot does not provide a valuation comparison or clear evidence of what the market expects, so whether ORIC is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a stated 51% miss probability make the next report an important risk point. Over the multi-year view, ORIC has initiated the Himalayas-1 Phase 3 trial and reported clinical data for enozertinib, while planning Redwood-1 for the first half of 2027. Cash declined to $387.6 million by June 2026, although management continues to state a runway into the second half of 2028 and beyond.
The thesis depends on progress in rinzimetostat’s Phase 3 trial and enozertinib’s clinical development, alongside maintaining the stated cash runway. A guidance cut would add pressure, while continued strength among healthcare sector leaders could support the sector backdrop; weakening jobs data is a broader risk flagged in the snapshot.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ORIC’s case rests on clinical milestones and cash discipline, but weak recent performance and elevated risk keep the thesis on watch. Evidence is limited, so the read remains low confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Advance lead clinical programs ORIC-944 and ORIC-114 | ORIC focuses on advancing two lead clinical programs with stable management. | Intact | Failure or significant delay in lead clinical programs | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage operating expenses and net losses | Operating losses are managed around -$35 million per quarter, supporting development while controlling cash burn. | Intact | Operating losses worsen significantly beyond -$40M per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• R&D Expenses: Research and development (R&D) expenses were $36.3 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $30.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2025, an increase of $5.7 million.” “• G&A Expenses: General and administrative (G&A) expenses were $9.0 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $8.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2025, an increase of $0.5 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.61 → $-1.67 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.61 | $2,211,857 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.61 | $2,211,857 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.62 | $2,211,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.62 | $2,211,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.62 | $2,211,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.61 | $0 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.61 | $0 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.61 | $0 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.60 | $2,211,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.61 | $0 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.61 | $0 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.63 | $2,211,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.61 | $0 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.63 | $2,211,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.62 | $0 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.62 | $0 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.62 | $0 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.64 | $0 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.64 | $0 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.64 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.66 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.67 | $2,211,857 | 11 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.