Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.89-12.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ORN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
to the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information To help understand the Company…
Why it matters: Orion kept its 2026 revenue range at $900 million to $950 million. Q4 results will show if full-year growth stays on track.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $900 million and no more than $950 million.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is below $900 million or above $950 million.
Why it matters: Marine backlog grew from $480 million at year-end to $506 million in Q3. More growth would support the outlook for future work.
Supportive ifThe next reported Marine backlog is above $506 million, with new awards or change orders adding to it.
Worry ifMarine backlog falls below $506 million, or new awards fail to replace completed work.
Why it matters: Marine revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell in Q2 as projects started late and equipment use declined. A better Q3 result showed improvement, but this needs to last.
Worry ifMarine revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rise from last year. Management reports better project starts and more equipment use.
Less concerning ifMarine revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls again from last year. Project starts stay delayed, or equipment use stays low.
Why it matters: Data centers have been a key source of Concrete work. New project phases can help keep that segment's growth going.
Supportive ifOrion reports new data center project phases or awards, and Concrete revenue grows year over year.
Worry ifOrion reports no new data center awards and Concrete revenue falls year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $578 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,980 loss on $10,000 · 59.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.