Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.28+1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
ORN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
to the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information To help understand the Company…
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target means higher profits. It also shows the company runs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported in Q3 is within the range of $0.36 to $0.42.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported in Q3 is below $0.36.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows confidence in demand. Changes may mean challenges ahead.
Watch forManagement reaffirms full-year revenue guidance of $900M to $950M in Q3.
Also watch forManagement cuts full-year revenue guidance to below $900M.
Why it matters: Revenue growth above 10% would show strong demand and effective project execution. It would support the company's full-year revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on this pipeline can show future revenue. This is important for growth in Marine and Concrete segments.
Watch forManagement shares updates on new project wins. This includes big contracts from the $24 billion pipeline.
Also watch forNo updates or a drop in pipeline value shows possible project delays.
Why it matters: Exceeding this range may indicate aggressive spending that could affect cash flow. It may raise concerns about financial discipline.
Worry ifCapital spending is $35 million or less.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is over $35 million.
Why it matters: Higher project awards would support backlog growth and indicate strong demand in key markets.
Supportive ifNew project awards in Q3 exceed $250 million.
Worry ifNew project awards in Q3 fall below $200 million.
Why it matters: Lower revenue guidance shows weak demand and problems with execution.
Worry ifFull-year revenue guidance is now below $900 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year revenue guidance is kept or raised above $900 million.
Why it matters: Meeting EBITDA guidance shows good operations. Missing it raises worries about costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is reported at $12 million or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is below $12 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show continued growth and support the full-year revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was $225 million or more. This shows strong demand and good execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was less than $215 million. This suggests weak demand or problems in execution.
Why it matters: This would show better earnings and progress toward the full-year EPS goal.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS was $0.10 or more. This shows better earnings performance.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $0.05. This shows ongoing problems with making money.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog would show strong demand and future revenue potential.
Supportive ifBacklog was $800 million or more. This reflects successful project awards.
Worry ifBacklog grew less than $750 million. This shows possible issues in getting new projects.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good capital management and helps support growth.
Watch forCapital spending was between $25M and $35M. This shows steady performance.
Also watch forCapital spending went over $35M. This may mean too much spending or poor management.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$216 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $514 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,720 loss on $10,000 · 47.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.