Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.35-3.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.42 → 2.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OSBC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share maintained at $0.07 | It keeps dividends at $0.07 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.06 per share next quarter | Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.07 USD per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Nov 4, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OSBC is a regional banking business with a thesis tied to financial-sector conditions, lending margins, and credit quality. The long-term thesis is currently intact, though momentum weakened after the latest earnings report.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with the model showing a modest premium versus peers and expectations broadly aligned with the business outlook. Fragility is rated low, but the valuation leaves less room for disappointment than a cheaper peer-level valuation would.
Near term, execution is mixed: net interest margin improved in the latest quarter, while the efficiency ratio worsened and management said credit losses remained higher than desired. Criticized loans improved, but recent earnings misses and a sharp decline in company momentum add caution; the stated miss risk is low, not absent.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends partly on credit quality continuing to improve while margins and operating efficiency remain sound. Near-term sector support could strengthen if major Financials companies keep beating and raising guidance, while rate cuts or weaker results and guidance from those peers could remove that tailwind.
The multi-year view remains intact, supported by improving criticized-loan measures and a higher recent net interest margin, but earnings misses, credit losses, and stretched valuation leave meaningful execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Old Second Bancorp grows operating income to $34 million next quarter. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $29 million next quarter |
Operating income: $37.838M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=34 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202637,838,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase of at least $61 million in next 12 months | Old Second Bancorp grows operating income to $34 million next quarter. | Intact | Buyback program canceled or reduced below $40 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.30 → $2.37 · observed estimates
$0.34B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.30 | $337,025,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.31 | $348,354,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.31 | $348,354,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.31 | $347,245,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.31 | $347,245,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.31 | $347,245,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.36 | $340,512,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.36 | $340,512,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.36 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.39 | $341,629,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.39 | $341,629,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.39 | $341,629,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.39 | $341,629,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.39 | $341,629,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.39 | $395,878,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.40 | $397,138,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.40 | $398,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.42 | $398,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.42 | $398,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.42 | $398,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.42 | $398,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.44 | $400,061,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.42 | $397,241,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.39 | $395,361,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.39 | $395,361,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.39 | $392,973,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.39 | $392,973,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.37 | $390,813,040 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.