Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.19+0.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OSBC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 21, 2026, Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company’s”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, along with certain other financial information. Copies of the Company’s press release and loan portfolio disclosures are attached as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively.
Why it matters: Deposits fell 2.15% in Q3 as some higher-rate deposits rolled off. A further drop could pressure the bank’s funding base.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows total deposits below $5.33 billion, the Q3 level.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits rise above $5.33 billion in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Old Second repurchased 1.5 million shares in Q3, reducing capital by $39.5 million. The next report can show whether the new program continues and how much capital it uses.
Watch forA filing or earnings report shows more repurchases under the program. It gives the amount and share count.
Also watch forThe next quarterly report shows no shares bought back under the program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$66 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $192 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $988 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.