Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.72+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
OSBC — director transition
Dated 2026-07-08
Director — John Williams, Jr.: Mr. Williams, Jr. resigned from the Board due to reaching the age of 73 as per the Company's Director Resignation Policy.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show strong financial health. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend is declared and paid as scheduled on August 10, 2026.
Worry ifIf the dividend is cut or stopped, it may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into the bank's performance and market conditions. It is a key indicator of financial health.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) is better than what analysts expected. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEPS is lower than analyst expectations. This suggests weaker performance.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision will shape the bank's strategy and performance. Investors will look for clarity on future direction.
Watch forA press release detailing the new CEO's strategic priorities and goals for the bank.
Also watch forThe new CEO has not communicated clearly. There is still uncertainty about the bank's direction.
Why it matters: Trends in operating income growth help us see the company's financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifOperating income growth falls below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$73 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $194 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $988 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows financial strength. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year from $34.06 million in Q1.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or fails to grow compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Progress on the share repurchase program shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says they have finished at least 50% of the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program over the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would signal a potential slowdown in financial performance.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $28 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains above $28 million.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean problems with credit quality.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are over $60 million. This shows credit quality is getting worse.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans stay below $56.5 million. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: Updates on the share repurchase program show management's confidence in the stock. It shows they want to return value to shareholders.
Watch forMore shares will be repurchased under the $61.2 million program.
Also watch forNo new updates or share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector, impacting OSBC's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median. This shows a possible slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above its median. This suggests continued expansion.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio means the company is less efficient. This can lower profits.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio is above 52%.
Less concerning ifThe efficiency ratio is below 52%.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show confidence in the company. This can raise stock value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $15 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $15 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.07 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or freeze at $0.07 per share.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the company is financially strong and well-managed. It means the company is still doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $31.1 million, which is a 10% increase from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net income is less than $28.2 million, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: A drop in nonperforming loans shows better credit quality and risk management. It shows the loan portfolio is healthy.
Supportive ifNonperforming loans fall below $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are still above $56.5 million. This suggests there are ongoing credit problems.