Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.22+4.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -65.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
OSG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of such press release and is incorporated by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabili…
Why it matters: Everspan's ratio improved year over year in Q2 but stayed above 100%. A rise would weaken the turnaround case.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows Everspan's combined ratio above 100.6%.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 report shows Everspan's combined ratio below 100.6%, with the loss ratio at or below 61.4%.
Why it matters: Everspan's ratio was 100.6% in Q2, down from 106.7% a year earlier. Below 100% means premiums covered claims and costs.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report shows Everspan's combined ratio below 100%, with a lower loss ratio than Q2's 61.4%.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows a combined ratio above 106.7%, or a loss ratio above 67.8%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $520 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,627 loss on $10,000 · 56.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.