OSI Systems, Inc. (OSIS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$204.15-1.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSIS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
OSIS — capital allocation — The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)…
Dated 2025-11-20
The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), in transactions not involving any public offering. The Notes were resold by the initial purchasers to persons whom the initial purchasers reasonably believe are “qualified institutional buyers,” as defined in, and in accordance with, Rule 144A under the Securities Act. Any shares of the Company’s common stock that may be issued upon conversion of t…
Why it matters: Winning a big contract can increase revenue. It also supports the company's market position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new contract worth over $100 million.
Worry ifNo major contract announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is doing well. It can fund its growth and keep business plans going.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $14.5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $14.5 million.
Why it matters: A backlog over $2 billion shows strong future revenue and demand.
Supportive ifBacklog reported at over $2 billion.
Worry ifBacklog remains below $1.9 billion.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance shows confidence in future earnings and growth.
Supportive ifManagement increases non-GAAP EPS guidance to more than $10.55.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers non-GAAP EPS guidance to below $10.30.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $398 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,615 loss on $10,000 · 36.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This is important for growth in the future.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $53.2 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $53.2 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Security shows good execution and high market demand.
Supportive ifThe security division's revenue grew more than 15% from last year.
Worry ifThe security division's revenue growth is less than 15% from last year.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below median, it may signal a broader slowdown. This could affect OSI Systems' performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show confidence in the company and help stock price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases at least 500,000 shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks are planned for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate shows strong demand and effective execution.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is above 8% compared to last year.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 8% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Backlog changes show demand trends. They also show how well the company is operating.
Watch forBacklog increases above $1.9 billion in Q1 2027.
Also watch forBacklog decreases below $1.9 billion in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management. It can help make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income is higher than last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is lower or the same as last quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows strong demand and good business execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 2% or better compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows strong demand. It also supports growth.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue guidance confirmed in the range of $1.875 billion to $1.930 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance is revised down to below $1.875 billion.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow from operations is key for funding growth and reducing debt.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases by 20% or more compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations declines or remains flat.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 5% would signal a slowdown in demand and execution issues.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenue growth below 5% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ1 2027 revenue growth above 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in backlog may show less demand. This could lead to revenue problems.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $1.8 billion.
Less concerning ifBacklog remains above $1.9 billion.
Why it matters: Cash flow under $200 million raises worries. This affects how well the company runs.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $200 million.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow stays above $200 million.
Why it matters: A slowdown in share buybacks may show a change in how the company spends money.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $50 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases remain above $100 million in a quarter.