Oshkosh (OSK)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$136.75-4.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OSK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release (the “News Release”) announcing its earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of such news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Access sales rose 20.7% in Q3 on higher volume and better prices. A drop in sales would weaken this bright spot.
Watch forAccess sales grow year over year in Q4, with higher sales volume contributing to the gain.
Also watch forAccess sales fall year over year in Q4, or growth comes only from higher prices while volume falls.
Why it matters: Fire truck output fell below management’s plan and drove a lower 2026 profit outlook. Higher output would show that factory changes are working.
Supportive ifQ4 fire truck output rises from Q3. Management reports better material flow and production scheduling.
Worry ifQ4 fire truck production stays at or below Q3, or management reports that throughput gains are still delayed.
Why it matters: Oshkosh said no 2026 NGDV order could cut earnings by up to $0.50 per share. An order would ease that risk.
Watch forOshkosh reports a 2026 NGDV order from the U.S. Postal Service.
Also watch forOshkosh reports no NGDV order in 2026, or says the order is delayed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.57 dividend for Q3. A cut would reverse the recent increase in the payment.
Worry ifThe next quarterly dividend stays at or above $0.57 per share.
Less concerning ifThe board declares a quarterly dividend below $0.57 per share or suspends it.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $390 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,336 loss on $10,000 · 33.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Oshkosh cut its adjusted EPS range after two earlier cuts. Results below the new range would point to more pressure.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EPS comes in below $8.50.
Less concerning ifFull-year adjusted EPS lands within or above the $8.50–$9.50 range.