Oshkosh (OSK)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$157.08+0.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OSK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-08
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release (the “News Release”) announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for Oshkosh to support its dividend and growth plans. A positive trend would signal better financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive and over $100 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative in Q2.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A drop below $2.92 signals deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $2.92.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $2.92.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for financial health. It affects operations and dividends.
Supportive ifManagement says cash from operations is rising a lot.
Worry ifManagement says cash from operating activities is still weak or going down.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show management's trust in cash flow and financial health.
Watch forManagement raises the quarterly dividend to more than $0.57 per share.
Also watch forManagement lowers the quarterly dividend to less than $0.57 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $386 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,336 loss on $10,000 · 33.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends is important. Changes may affect how investors feel.
Worry ifThe company says dividend payments will keep going as planned.
Less concerning ifThe company says it will cut or stop the dividend.
Why it matters: Earnings show financial health and how well the company runs. It affects future plans.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth speeding up above 8% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth declining or below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable margins show better cost management and product mix. This is key for profit.
Supportive ifOperating income margins stay above 8.5%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating income margins drop below 8%. This shows ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: Sales growth in Access is crucial for overall revenue. It indicates demand strength.
Supportive ifAccess segment sales growth exceeds 9% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAccess segment sales growth falls below 0% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The Q2 results will show if Oshkosh can recover from the Q1 earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improved performance.
Watch forEarnings per share for Q2 is over $2.90. This shows recovery from the last quarter.
Also watch forEarnings per share for Q2 falls below $2.50, suggesting ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Changes in earnings guidance show how management sees the business and market.
Watch forManagement raises earnings per share guidance above $11.00. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forManagement lowers earnings per share guidance below $10.50. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Oshkosh plans to keep paying dividends. Regular payments show financial strength and trust.
Supportive ifOshkosh says it will keep paying quarterly dividends of $0.57 per share.
Worry ifOshkosh cuts or suspends dividend payments.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows the company is healthy. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifDividend payment remains at $0.57 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend payment is cut or not maintained at $0.57 per share.
Why it matters: An increase shows confidence in cash flow and financial stability.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from the current $0.57 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend payment announced.
Why it matters: Better fire truck production is needed to meet customer needs.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big rise in fire truck output.
Worry ifManagement says there are still delays in fire truck output.
Why it matters: Better margins help cover rising costs. They are key to staying profitable.
Supportive ifOperating income margin rises to over 9% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 8% in Q3.