Otis Worldwide (OTIS)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.21-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OTIS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
OTIS — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-07
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, Otis Worldwide Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued $700,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.488% Notes due 2029 (the “ Otis Notes ”). The Otis Notes were registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Act ”), pursuant to the Company’s Registration Statement on Form S-3ASR (File No. 333-293482) (the “ Registration Statement ”) filed on February 13, 2026. On May 4, 2026, the Company filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (th…
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target helps with the yearly adjusted EPS guidance. It shows how well the company is doing.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 2026 reaches $1.02 or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 2026 falls below $0.98.
Why it matters: Ongoing growth in modernization orders shows strong demand. It helps meet revenue goals.
Supportive ifModernization orders grow more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifModernization orders grow less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower growth may show less demand in the Service segment. This can hurt overall performance.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth was below 5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic sales growth reported at 5% or higher.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with spending and paying shareholders. This matches what management wants.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow exceeds $400 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow falls below $300 million in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,593 loss on $10,000 · 25.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower margin may mean higher costs. This can affect overall profits.
Worry ifService segment profit margin was below 23%.
Less concerning ifService segment profit margin was 23% or higher.
Why it matters: Hitting this sales target shows growth momentum. It can boost market perception.
Supportive ifNet sales reported at $15.1 billion or higher in the next earnings report.
Worry ifNet sales reported below $15.1 billion.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could boost Otis's performance and outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 8% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in orders may show less demand. This can affect future revenue.
Worry ifNew Equipment orders decline more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifNew Equipment orders grow or decline less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better organic sales growth shows higher demand. It helps meet management's sales goals.
Supportive ifQ2 organic sales growth is over 1%. It ideally reaches the mid-single digits.
Worry ifQ2 organic sales growth remains at or below 1%.
Why it matters: Strong Service sales growth is key to meeting Otis's full-year sales targets. It shows demand for maintenance and modernization.
Supportive ifQ3 Service sales growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Service sales growth is 6% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting the adjusted EPS target shows good performance and smart cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reaches or exceeds $4.20.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $4.20.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with spending and paying shareholders. This shows good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reaches $1.60 billion.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow falls below $1.60 billion.
Why it matters: If orders stabilize or grow, it shows recovery in the New Equipment segment. This is key for long-term growth.
Watch forNew Equipment orders grow year over year.
Also watch forNew Equipment orders decline year over year.