Outfront Media (OUT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.96-1.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OUT — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-05
Other Events. On August 5, 2026, the Company announced that its board of directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.33 per share on the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share. The dividend is payable on September 30, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on September 4, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the quarterly cash dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2, and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. A missed payment could raise concerns.
Supportive ifThe company pays the announced dividend of $0.30 per share on June 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe company stops or cuts the dividend payment.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can affect the economy and ad budgets. Changes might impact OUTFRONT's revenue.
Watch forAd demand goes up in the weeks after the FOMC meeting.
Also watch forAd demand goes down or stays the same after the FOMC meeting.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.30 per share, confirming stable cash flow.
Worry ifIf the dividend is cut or stopped, it means there are cash flow problems.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations shows better financial health. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifNet cash flow from operating activities exceeds $80 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet cash flow from operating activities drops below $60 million in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $229 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,457 loss on $10,000 · 14.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could benefit Outfront Media's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up again, going above 7%.
Also watch forSector revenue growth continues to slow below 7%.
Why it matters: The debt issuance is meant to refinance existing notes. How it affects interest expenses and cash flow is key.
Watch forInterest expense drops below $35 million in Q2 2026.
Also watch forInterest expense remains above $36 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Closing the debt issuance will affect the company's money options. It will also impact refinancing.
Watch forThe debt issuance closes successfully. It brings in $500 million in new capital.
Also watch forThe debt issuance fails to close or is significantly delayed.
Why it matters: This will indicate if cash flow growth is weakening. Management targets strong cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 AFFO growth is below 40% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 AFFO growth is 40% or higher compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows better financial health. It supports the ability to pay dividends and invest.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up from the last quarter.
Worry ifCash from operating activities goes down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: A high payout ratio may limit future growth and indicate financial strain.
Worry ifDividend payout ratio exceeds 80% based on net income.
Less concerning ifDividend payout ratio remains below 80% based on net income.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback will show management's trust in the stock and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of specific terms for the share buyback program.
Worry ifThere is no news about the share buyback program. It has not been canceled.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows market demand and success. It can impact stock performance.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing revenue is key for keeping momentum. It also helps boost investor confidence. A slowdown may cause worries.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue shows an increase from Q1 2026 results of $429.6 million.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue declines or grows less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth could signal a shift in demand or market conditions. Investors will want to see if growth continues to meet expectations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would show confidence in cash flow and profit growth. It also reflects management's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.33 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced for Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows how profitable a company is. If it drops below 50%, it may mean problems with costs or sales.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 50% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is above 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow from operations can show problems with profits or managing money. This is important for paying dividends.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $75 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is above $75 million.