Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.29+2.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OVLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
OVLY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-01-27
CEO — Christopher M. Courtney: Christopher M. Courtney is retiring as CEO, but will continue to serve on the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Q3 expense fell from Q2, but it stayed above the year-ago level. Lower costs could help earnings recover.
Supportive ifQ4 non-interest expense is below $14.2 million. It is also below $12.7 million in the year-ago quarter.
Worry ifQ4 non-interest expense is at least $14.2 million or rises from the $13.42 million Q3 level.
Why it matters: Non-performing assets fell from 0.23% in Q1 to 0.13% in Q3. A rise would reverse that improvement.
Worry ifA later quarter shows non-performing assets above 0.23% of all assets.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets stay at or below 0.13% of total assets, with no new large charge-off.
Why it matters: Loans grew year over year, but fell from Q2 to Q3. Deposits were nearly flat from Q2, so both trends matter.
Watch forQ4 gross loans rise above $1.15 billion, while deposits stay at or above $1.76 billion.
Also watch forQ4 gross loans fall below $1.15 billion and deposits fall below $1.76 billion.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 4.24% in Q3 as net interest income grew. A further gain would support earnings.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 4.15% and net interest income is above $18.9 million.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 4.15% or net interest income falls below $18.9 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $201 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $899 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company paid a $0.375 dividend in Q3, its second payment of 2026. A new declaration would show that cash payouts continue.
Supportive ifA company release or filing declares a cash dividend of at least $0.375 per share.
Worry ifThe next release or filing declares no dividend, or a dividend below $0.375 per share.