Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.88+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OVLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
OVLY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-01-27
CEO — Christopher M. Courtney: Christopher M. Courtney is retiring as CEO, but will continue to serve on the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may show problems in controlling costs as the company grows.
Worry ifNon-interest expense will be over $14.5 million in the next report.
Less concerning ifNon-interest expense will be under $14.5 million. This shows better cost control.
Why it matters: Dropping below this level may show lower profits and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income reported below $5 million in the next earnings release.
Less concerning ifNet income remains above $5 million, showing stable earnings.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe cash dividend of $0.375 is paid on August 14, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is canceled or cut.
Why it matters: An increase would show possible credit problems. This could affect investor trust.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are above $3 million. This shows rising credit risk.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets are under $3 million. This shows stable credit quality.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $205 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,392 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A sharp rise in expenses could indicate challenges in managing costs amid growth.
Worry ifNon-interest expense increases beyond $14.8 million, which is a 5% rise from Q2.
Less concerning ifNon-interest expense stays at or below $14.8 million each quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may show less profit from loans.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.10% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays at or above 4.10% in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher provision would show worse credit conditions. This could impact future earnings.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses is above $100,000. This indicates higher credit risk.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses is below $100,000. This shows stable credit conditions.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows problems with making money and managing costs.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains above $5 million.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may raise worries about credit quality and risk.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses reported below 0.90% of gross loans.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses remains at or above 0.90%.
Why it matters: Growth above this level shows strong demand and good lending strategies.
Supportive ifGross loans increase by more than $20 million.
Worry ifGross loans increase by $20 million or less.