Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ovintiv (OVV)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$60.91-2.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.29 → 8.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OVV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Full year capital investment between $2.25 and $2.35 billion | The company plans capital investment of $2.25 to $2.35 billion in 2026. | Intact | capital expenditure falls below $2.25 billion or exceeds $2.35 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $574M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $2.25 to $2.35 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 23, 2026574,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy business with a cash-return and production-growth thesis. The thesis is in a watch state: recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort, while earnings quality is robust and sector conditions are supportive.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to OVV being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 68% premium to peers; the overall valuation factor is expensive. The expectations gap is 0.15, and the priced-in assessment is stretched, though its fragility rating is low because the concern reflects a turbulent sector regime rather than the full combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence.
Near term, earnings execution remains a concern after the July earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses, despite a low assessed miss risk. Management has returned about 63% of second-quarter free cash flow and kept its 2026 capital investment range unchanged; full-year delivery is not yet known. Production guidance was raised in July, but quarterly output declined from the first quarter to the second, so results still need to confirm the plan.
The near-term downside case is a guidance cut on the next call, which could prompt further estimate reductions. The sector backdrop could remain supportive if COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating and raising guidance, or weaken if they miss or guide lower. The October 26 acquisition announcements are recent, but the evidence gives no details on their expected effect.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on OVV delivering its production and capital plans while sustaining cash returns, with sector conditions shaping near-term support. Weak recent performance and stretched valuation keep execution central to the multi-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Valuation metrics like a 11.04 P/E and 3% free cash flow yield suggest value compared to peers. |
| Intact |
| cash from operating activities falls below $1 billion next year |
Cash from operations: $1.632B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.056 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 23, 20261,632,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.30 per share | It maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share, showing commitment to shareholders. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.30 next year | Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.30 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 1.8% revenue growth | A supporting condition in Ovintiv's published investment case. The stated target is >= 1.8% YoY. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 1.5% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.99 → $8.27 · observed estimates
$8.94B → $9.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.99 | $8,939,944,060 | 19 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.05 | $8,973,683,050 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.05 | $8,973,683,050 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.05 | $9,014,433,050 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.84 | $8,936,552,470 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.84 | $8,936,552,470 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.30 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.30 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.30 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.30 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.31 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.31 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.31 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.31 | $9,385,801,440 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.89 | $9,124,144,352 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.97 | $9,164,413,824 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.97 | $9,164,413,824 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.97 | $9,164,413,824 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.93 | $9,164,413,824 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.93 | $9,164,413,824 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.94 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.94 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.94 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.94 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.97 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.97 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.97 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.97 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.97 | $9,225,002,059 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.97 | $9,220,174,959 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.97 | $9,152,387,461 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.97 | $9,152,387,461 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.97 | $9,152,387,461 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.95 | $9,152,387,461 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.95 | $9,152,387,461 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.95 | $9,152,387,461 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.95 | $9,152,387,461 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.91 | $9,152,387,461 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.00 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.00 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.00 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.99 | $9,185,720,794 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.98 | $9,180,670,794 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.98 | $9,180,670,794 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.03 | $9,180,670,794 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.10 | $9,209,340,833 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.10 | $9,209,340,833 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.10 | $9,209,340,833 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.10 | $9,209,340,833 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.10 | $9,209,340,833 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.14 | $9,227,764,833 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.14 | $9,227,764,833 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.19 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.29 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.29 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.30 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.30 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.30 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.30 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.30 | $9,237,431,500 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.54 | $9,277,042,611 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.54 | $9,277,042,611 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.55 | $9,290,156,433 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.68 | $9,342,573,099 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.69 | $9,340,031,861 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.81 | $9,377,976,305 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.81 | $9,377,976,305 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.80 | $9,377,976,305 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.80 | $9,377,976,305 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.97 | $9,377,976,305 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.09 | $9,420,531,861 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.09 | $9,420,531,861 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.09 | $9,420,531,861 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.24 | $9,488,542,972 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.24 | $9,488,542,972 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.24 | $9,488,542,972 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.24 | $9,488,542,972 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.23 | $9,620,884,669 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.23 | $9,620,884,669 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.24 | $9,635,329,113 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.24 | $9,635,329,113 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.24 | $9,635,329,113 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.24 | $9,635,329,113 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.18 | $9,509,370,253 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.27 | $9,523,057,753 | 13 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
6 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.