Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Passage Bio Inc (PASG)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.51+3.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PASG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway through first quarter 2027 | The company extended its cash runway to the first quarter of 2027. | Intact | Cash runway does not extend through 2027-Q1 | Cash and cash equivalents: None 24.155M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sufficient cash to fund operations through 2027-Q1. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Date unavailable24,155,000 None · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, loss-making biotechnology company, not a proven compounder. The long-term thesis weakened this week as recent financial performance fell to the bottom half of its industry; confidence in the overall evidence is low.
The snapshot gives no valuation level or market expectations, so whether PASG is cheap or expensive versus peers, and what the market already assumes, cannot be assessed. It reports low fragility, but that does not establish that expectations are modest.
Near term, management is reducing costs, and operating losses narrowed between 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q2. PBFT02 has shown reported clinical signals, but FDA feedback calls for a randomized controlled registrational trial, a significant hurdle; the next-quarter miss risk is elevated. The merger with Remix is progressing toward its expected Q4 2026 close, while integration and the planned workforce reduction remain execution tasks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on completing and integrating the Remix merger, delivering further PBFT02 progress, and meeting the FDA’s trial requirements. A guidance cut or weaker employment data could add pressure, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the broader healthcare backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, PASG remains a high-risk, loss-making clinical-stage story with some cost-control progress but substantial regulatory and execution uncertainty. The evidence does not establish its valuation or what expectations are priced in. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Advance clinical trials and manage partnerships |
| A supporting condition in Passage Bio Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing clinical progress and strategic partnership management. |
| Improving |
| No meaningful clinical progress or partnership management |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating expenses by workforce cuts | A primary condition in Passage Bio Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Complete 75% workforce reduction by Q3 2026. | Intact | Workforce reduction falls short of 75% by Q3 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete acquisitions and manage restructuring costs | A supporting condition in Passage Bio Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Complete acquisition and manage lease termination costs (~$4.8M). | Improving | Failure to complete acquisitions or control restructuring costs | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “Corporate Update The Company has initiated a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.” “These strategic alternatives may include merger or acquisition transactions, a reverse merger, a sale of assets of the Company, strategic partnerships, licensing opportunities, or other potential paths.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-9.70 → $-10.20 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-9.70 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-9.70 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-9.70 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-9.70 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-9.70 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-10.39 | $0 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-8.31 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-10.20 | $45,012,019 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.