Paymentus Holdings Inc (PAY)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.19-1.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAY — director transition
Dated 2026-07-23
Director — Adam Malinowski: Adam Malinowski resigned as a director, and Gregory Williams was appointed to fill the vacancy.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better financial health. It also shows effective operations.
Supportive ifCash from operations is above $50 million.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $40 million.
Why it matters: Filling this role fast can help the legal team and company work better.
Watch forA new General Counsel will replace Andrew Gerber.
Also watch forNo news or a long wait for the General Counsel role.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change strategy and execution. This affects trust and company results.
Watch forThere is a new executive hire or a big leadership change.
Also watch forNo changes in leaders after the director transition.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could signal broader challenges that impact Paymentus.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: High transaction volume shows customers are engaged. This indicates growth.
Supportive ifTransaction volume is 210 million or higher.
Worry ifTransaction volume is below 200 million.
Why it matters: Transaction growth is key to revenue growth. A rise indicates strong demand for Paymentus' services.
Supportive ifProcessed transactions are over 220 million in Q3.
Worry ifProcessed transactions fall below 210 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A margin over 40% shows strong efficiency and profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 40% in the next earnings release.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 38% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance is key to understanding if growth momentum is slowing. A drop below $353 million would signal a potential slowdown.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is set between $353 million and $363 million, and guidance below $353 million would confirm a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance remains at or above $363 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how profitable a company is. If it drops below $40 million, it raises concerns about costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is expected to be between $40 million and $45 million. If it is below $40 million, it shows there are problems.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is more than $45 million.
Why it matters: Cash from operations is crucial for funding growth. A drop below $40 million would raise concerns about cash flow.
Worry ifCash from operations below $40 million in Q3 would confirm cash flow issues.
Less concerning ifCash from operations exceeds $50 million.
Why it matters: Transaction volume growth is a key driver of revenue. A slowdown below 20% could indicate weakening demand.
Worry ifIf transaction volume growth is below 20% year-over-year, it shows demand is falling.
Less concerning ifTransaction volume grew more than 21% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $582 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,652 loss on $10,000 · 46.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.