Paymentus Holdings Inc (PAY)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.49+7.96%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAY — director transition
Dated 2026-07-23
Director — Adam Malinowski: Adam Malinowski resigned as a director, and Gregory Williams was appointed to fill the vacancy.
Why it matters: More billers and transactions drove Q2 revenue growth. A lower Q3 transaction count would point to weaker activity.
Worry ifQ3 transactions fall below 213.4 million, the Q2 total. Year-over-year transaction growth turns negative.
Less concerning ifQ3 transactions exceed 213.4 million, and growth remains positive year over year.
Why it matters: The next report can show whether growth and cash gains held up after Q2. The inputs give no Q3 results yet.
Watch forThe report shows revenue growth above 0% year over year and operating cash flow above $48.9 million.
Also watch forThe report shows revenue down year over year or operating cash flow below $30.5 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA grew 54% in Q2, and its margin reached 41.3%. A result below the Q3 range would weaken that progress.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $40 million, the low end of the company’s range.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $40 million and the company keeps its full-year range.
Why it matters: Management tied its 2026 goals to bookings and backlog. Revenue at or above $1,443 million would support that view.
Supportive ifReported 2026 revenue is at least $1,443 million, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifReported 2026 revenue is below $1,443 million or the company cuts its range before year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $604 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,652 loss on $10,000 · 46.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Paymentus set a Q3 revenue range of $353 million to $363 million. Revenue below that range would break its stated growth path.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $353 million, the low end of the company’s range.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue is at least $353 million and year-over-year growth remains positive.