Paysign, Inc. (PAYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.45+3.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAYS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, we issued a press release regarding our financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B-2 of SEC Form 8-K, the information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the sector. This could hurt Paysign's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Why it matters: This shows there may be problems in the plasma business. This is important for revenue.
Worry ifPlasma revenue growth year over year below 21%.
Less concerning ifPlasma revenue growth year over year above 21%.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit means Paysign is making more money. This is an important goal for management.
Supportive ifGross profit for Q2 exceeds $18.2M, indicating margin growth.
Worry ifGross profit for Q2 is below $18.2M, suggesting margin pressure.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows strong growth. It shows that management believes in steady revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $26.2 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $26.2 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $500 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,984 loss on $10,000 · 49.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Equal growth in plasma and pharma shows balanced expansion, key for long-term success.
Supportive ifBoth plasma and pharma revenue grow at similar rates in Q2.
Worry ifOne segment grows significantly faster than the other in Q2.
Why it matters: Maintaining this margin shows good cost management. It also helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin reported at or above 60% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 60% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Net income is critical for Paysign's growth. A miss here could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 net income reports above $5.7 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reports below $5.7 million.
Why it matters: A drop below 61% could signal issues with cost management and pricing power.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported at 61% or higher.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin reported below 61%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may mean less demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth year over year below 32%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth year over year above 38.9%.
Why it matters: If plasma centers stay stable or grow, it shows a healthy operation.
Supportive ifThe number of plasma centers stays the same or goes up from 561.
Worry ifThe number of plasma centers drops below 561.
Why it matters: Higher net income guidance means strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifNet income guidance for 2026 exceeds $23 million.
Worry ifNet income guidance for 2026 is below $21.5 million.
Why it matters: A high operating margin shows good cost control and profit.
Supportive ifOperating margin stays above 24% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 21.3% in Q3.