Pioneer Bancorp Inc/NY (PBFS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.54+2.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PBFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
PBFS — CEO transition
Dated 2025-12-22
The filing describes a new compensatory incentive plan for executives.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth shows customer confidence. It also supports lending capacity, which is key for performance.
Supportive ifDeposits for Q3 2026 exceed $2.17 billion, reflecting over 10% growth year over year.
Worry ifDeposits for Q3 2026 are under $2.0 billion. This shows weaker customer retention.
Why it matters: Successful integration will improve Pioneer’s services. It will also help client relationships and growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration process is on track. New services will launch by Q4 2026.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays in bringing in The College Advisor. This impacts service delivery.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader issues. This affects PBFS's growth outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last three years.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: The success of this new division shows how well Pioneer’s strategy works.
Watch forThe College Advising Division reports more than 100 clients served by Q4 2026.
Also watch forThe College Advising Division struggles to attract clients, serving fewer than 50 by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows strong loan demand. It also shows good interest rate management.
Supportive ifNet interest income for Q3 2026 increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifNet interest income for Q3 2026 decreases year over year or grows less than 5%.
Why it matters: If net income drops below this level, it shows ongoing profit problems.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 reported below $3 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 2026 reported above $3 million.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show credit quality problems. This could hurt profits and investor trust.
Worry ifAnnualized net charge-offs are over 0.5% of average loans for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAnnualized net charge-offs are under 0.2% of average loans. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: Growth in this division shows successful expansion. It also shows more ways to earn money.
Supportive ifEmployee Benefits division revenue increases by more than 15% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from the Employee Benefits division shows no growth or declines in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A successful integration will improve services. It may also bring in new clients and help revenue grow.
Supportive ifPioneer says the integration is successful. They report early revenue from the College Advising Division in 6 months.
Worry ifThere are problems with integration. This delays revenue from the College Advising Division.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin will reflect how well Pioneer is managing its funding costs.
Watch forNet interest margin goes above 4.25% in the Q2 earnings report.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 4.15% in Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: Successful integration will show if the acquisition adds value. This affects future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is going well. They are seeing benefits from it.
Worry ifProblems with integration come up. This may cause delays or extra costs.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into Pioneer Bancorp's performance and outlook. It could impact stock sentiment.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) is better than what analysts expected.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analyst expectations.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows demand for credit. It also shows effective sales strategies, helping financial health.
Supportive ifNet loans receivable grow more than 10% from Q2 2026 to Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet loans receivable growth is less than 5% from Q2 2026 to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the acquisition impacts financial performance. Strong results can boost confidence.
Watch forEarnings show strong revenue growth or better profit margins compared to Q1.
Also watch forEarnings reveal a decline in revenue or profit margins compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Successful integration will show if Pioneer can enhance its commercial lending capabilities. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifPioneer reports a big increase in net loans receivable. It is now over $1.87 billion.
Worry ifNet loans receivable stays the same or goes down. There is no growth from the acquisition.
Why it matters: Revenue growth from this division shows success in making money through recent purchases.
Supportive ifPioneer reports a rise in revenue from the Employee Benefits division compared to last year.
Worry ifRevenue from the Employee Benefits division stays flat or goes down year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,040 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.