Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Pacira BioSciences, Inc. (PCRX)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.40+0.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.44 → 3.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PCRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Receive up to $140 million from iovera divestiture | The company gains $140 million from selling its iovera business. | Intact | Divestiture deal fails or proceeds fall below $70 million upfront | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The quarter was also highlighted by our recently closed transaction with Zimmer Biomet, which positions iovera ® ° to reach its full global potential while preserving Pacira’s participation in its future success and further sharpening our focus as an innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company.”” “The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PCRX is a growth-focused healthcare business, not yet a profitable compounder, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by revenue growth and an ongoing growth strategy, while elevated risk and loss-making earnings quality keep the thesis uncertain.
PCRX is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 1.24 and expectations that appear broadly aligned with fundamentals. The expectations gap is modest, and no fragility signals are flagged, but the recent decline in the valuation measure does not remove the premium.
Near term, revenue growth supports management’s 5x30 strategy, and the company recently reported an earnings beat. Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance, though progress is mixed, and its gross-margin range is below the prior year; losses and erratic earnings results remain risks.
The next call matters: a cut to reaffirmed guidance would weaken the near-term setup. A weakening jobs trend could also pressure cyclical healthcare names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustained revenue growth and management execution, against elevated risk, ongoing losses, and a valuation premium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Non-GAAP gross margin stays between 77% and 79% in 2026 | A primary condition in Pacira BioSciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 77% to 79%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 77% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Guidance Today the company is providing full-year 2026 financial guidance as follows: • EXPAREL net product sales of $600 to $620 million; • Total revenue of $745 million to $770 million; • Non-GAAP gross margin of 77 to 79 percent; • Non-GAAP R&D expense of $105 million to $115 million; • Non-GAAP SG&A expense of $320 million to $340 million; and • Stock-based compensation of $54 million to $62 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Non-GAAP net income reaches $24.5 million in 2026 | Net income hits $24.5 million in 2026. | Intact | Net income falls below $24.5 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue grows to $745M-$770M in 2026 | A primary condition in Pacira BioSciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $745 million and <= $770 million. | Broken | Total revenue falls below $745 million in FY26 | Revenue: $192.399M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $745 million and <= $770 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026192,399,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Guidance Today the company is providing full-year 2026 financial guidance as follows: • EXPAREL net product sales of $600 to $620 million; • Total revenue of $745 million to $770 million; • Non-GAAP gross margin of 77 to 79 percent; • Non-GAAP R&D expense of $105 million to $115 million; • Non-GAAP SG&A expense of $320 million to $340 million; and • Stock-based compensation of $54 million to $62 million.” Revenue was $192.399 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.65 → $3.46 · observed estimates
$0.83B → $0.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.65 | $831,293,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.65 | $831,293,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.65 | $831,293,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.61 | $831,350,540 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.65 | $831,293,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.65 | $831,293,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.65 | $831,293,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.61 | $831,350,540 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.61 | $831,350,540 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.65 | $831,293,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.61 | $831,350,540 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.61 | $831,350,540 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.61 | $831,350,540 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.61 | $816,146,940 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.54 | $796,484,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.45 | $788,207,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.44 | $788,706,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.44 | $789,703,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.46 | $789,706,350 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.46 | $789,706,350 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.46 | $790,020,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.46 | $790,020,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.46 | $790,021,962 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.