Pure Cycle Corp. (PCYO)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.19+0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PCYO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
PCYO — officer change
Dated 2026-08-25
Director — Chris Fink, Kelly Haecker: The filing discloses the appointment of two new independent directors to fill vacancies, which is a routine board composition update rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Hitting EPS guidance shows strong performance and boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifEPS for the full year reaches or exceeds the guidance of $0.50.
Worry ifIf EPS is below guidance, it shows there are operational challenges.
Why it matters: Finishing Phase 2D on time helps with revenue. It also aids builder partnerships.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of substantial completion of Phase 2D by end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifPhase 2D completion delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More executive changes can show instability. This may change plans and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifAnother executive has left the company. There is no clear successor.
Less concerning ifNo further executive changes occur in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Ongoing revenue growth shows the company can handle market challenges. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue is over $8.2 million. This keeps the growth trend going.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is under $8.2 million. This may show problems with demand or execution.
Why it matters: A new board member can influence company strategy and stability. This affects investor trust.
Watch forAnnouncement of a qualified successor to the board position left by Daniel J. Roller.
Also watch forThere is no news about a new leader. This creates uncertainty in management.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. It also helps with growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations has been positive for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative again in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Decisions on rental expansion will impact cash flow and growth strategy.
Watch forThe company plans to restart its growth in the single-family rental segment.
Also watch forThe company will pause growth again due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue growth is key to meeting fiscal year targets. It indicates business health.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, revenue growth stays the same or gets better than Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth continues to decline or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: Changes in the board can change company strategy. This can affect investor confidence.
Watch forA new board member with relevant experience is appointed within the next quarter.
Also watch forNo new board member is added. This creates uncertainty about the company's direction.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved efficiency. This helps with ongoing investments and returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifCash and cash equivalents increase beyond $8.4 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents decrease or remain below $8.4 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth is key for long-term success. It indicates strong market demand.
Supportive ifRevenue achievement is at 77% or more of full-year guidance in Q3.
Worry ifRevenue achievement drops below 77% of full-year guidance in Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing Phase 2D will confirm the company's ability to deliver lots on time. This is key for revenue growth.
Supportive ifPhase 2D reaches substantial completion by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifPhase 2D completion is delayed beyond fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving EPS guidance shows strong financial health and growth. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share for Q3 2026 meets or exceeds $0.12.
Worry ifEarnings per share for Q3 2026 falls below $0.12.
Why it matters: More water sales show that investing in water rights and delivery systems works. This helps grow revenue.
Supportive ifWater sales to oil and gas customers increase by more than 20% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifWater sales to oil and gas customers decrease or remain flat.
Why it matters: The new directors have skills that may improve decisions. This can help shareholders in the long run.
Watch forBoard discussions reflect new strategies or insights from Chris Fink and Kelly Haecker.
Also watch forBoard talks stay the same even with new directors.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $312 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,750 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.