Reading PEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PEN free→Reading PEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PEN free→NYSEHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 226% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If PEN cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $318.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $319, PEN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 9× p/s (3.1× the 3× p/s peer median, and 0.9× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~211% near-term growth vs our ~20% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $103 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $335–$374. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 211% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.19 → $1.16 (-2.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$27.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$239.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,144.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track after the recent miss.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PEN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Penumbra, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished on this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the attached exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$335.00 – $374.00 (median $360.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PEN Penumbra, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue to maintain gross margin guidance as part of cost management.
Maintain focus on U.S. Thrombectomy growth as a key market segment.
Why it matters: Growth here is very important for management. It also impacts total revenue growth.
Confirms:Management reports U.S. Thrombectomy revenue growth above 15% in the next update.
Disproves:U.S. Thrombectomy revenue growth remains below 5% in the next update.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin high is key for making money. It also helps build investor trust.
Confirms:Gross margin reported above 60% in Q2 results.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 55% in Q2 results.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may show bigger problems for Penumbra.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth has been below its average for two months in a row.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is steady or goes above the average.