Reading PENN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PENN free→Reading PENN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PENN free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PENN trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 PENN trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $16–$25. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.62x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.28 (-11.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.9% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$207.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$501.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,255.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and growth trends. This is critical for investors.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth of at least 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or flat performance year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PENN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026, PENN Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of May 3, 2022 (as amended prior to the effectiveness of the Amendment, the “Existing Credit Agreement” and as further amended by the Amendment, the “Amended Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, the guarantors party thereto, the lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A, as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$16.00 – $25.00 (median $22.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PENN Penn Entertainment | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on reducing lease adjusted net leverage by more than 1 turn and traditional net leverage by more than 2 turns.
Aim to complete two additional retail growth projects by the end of the second quarter.
Plan to launch operations in Alberta, leveraging positive business trends.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is key for financial health. Investors want to see real progress.
Confirms:Management reports a decrease in total debt by at least 10% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Total debt remains unchanged or increases in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Successful retail projects can drive revenue. This is crucial for future growth.
Confirms:Two new retail locations will open in the next quarter.
Disproves:No new retail projects announced or delays in existing projects.
Why it matters: The Alberta launch can expand market presence. This is important for growth.
Confirms:Official launch announcement in Alberta within the next three months.
Disproves:Further delays or lack of updates on the Alberta launch.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, PENN Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 16, 2026, PENN Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of May 3, 2022 (as amended prior to the effectiveness of the Amendment, the “Existing Credit Agreement” and as further amended by the Amendment, the “Amended Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, the guarantors party thereto, the lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A, a…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in