Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.72+0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 PFS trades at 1.1× p/b, below its 1.2× p/b peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| graham number | 12M | $34.70 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $27.65 | 1.2 | 22.29 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $31.79 | 11.7 | 2.72 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $27.84 | 10.9 | 2.56 | ntm analyst | high |
| PEG | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $28.41 |
| 11.8 |
| 2.40 |
| TTM |
| high |
| residual income | 12M | $23.90 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $23.63 | 9.8 | 2.40 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $29.38 | 11.9 | 2.46 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $42.05 | 1.2 | 33.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $48.35 | 11.7 | 4.14 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $33.82 | 10.9 | 3.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $2.50 | 3.2 | 0.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $36.75 | 11.8 | 3.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $30.56 | 9.8 | 3.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $55.62 | 1.2 | 44.84 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $63.95 | 11.7 | 5.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $41.41 | 10.9 | 3.80 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $3.07 | 3.2 | 0.97 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $45.00 | 11.8 | 3.80 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $37.42 | 9.8 | 3.80 | Analyst | high |